Obviously we could handicap all day and probably have many more bets today, but that seems like a bad idea and it’s probably part of the reason why we stumbled earlier this month. I love all of our plays today; added the Cavs and Kings – let’s keep humming!
Clippers +3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I have to take LAC at this number. The Clippers are in a flow-state right now and it’s mostly because of what they’re doing on defense. But when this team is completely healthy, I think they can be deadly good. They’ll be as close to completely healthy as they’ve been all season tomorrow. Kawhi, PG, and Zubac are all in and it looks like even John Wall is showing up as questionable and could play. As well as Philly’s been performing on both sides of the ball, their pedestrian pace won’t be a good matchup against the Clippers. LAC thrives off their length and disciplined, lock-down defense; usually it’s only fast-paced, high octane offense like the Warriors or Kings that could give them trouble. That’s not the way Philly is built. They love ISOs and pick and rolls, but the Clippers sniff that out like a mouse finds cheese. I just don’t believe in the 76ers in big games like this and even though their defense has been exceptional too, I trust a cohesives, egoless Clippers big 3 to overwhelm the inconsistent, more often clumsy unit in Philadelphia. Give me the dogs at a beautiful number.
Bucks/Nets over 225.5 (-110), to win 2 units
I love this matchup for a big offensive exhibition. As much as the Warriors’ road woes and injuries are a big part of Brooklyn’s historic night Wednesday, it doesn’t mean the Nets aren’t the biggest part of that story. Kevin Durant and company are humming like they never have before. There’s actual chemistry there. They’re having fun. They’re trusting their roles, and it’s showing on the court. They’re masterful scorers in the mid-range, and they’re increasingly skilled in the 3-point game. As Joe Harris warms up, that’ll get even better. Meanwhile, my #1 rated team, the Milwaukee Bucks, are coming off a disappointing loss to Cleveland. And a lot of that was the Cavs’ defense. Cleveland forced 21 turnovers that night, a figure not reminiscent of the Bucks we know. Reprogrammed for a big night, the bucks should look way better Friday (aka, regression). I think both teams will want to attack early and this becomes a superstar competition more than a defensive battle. Give me the over – I got it at 234.
Knicks -5.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Bulls have been dominated by the Knicks twice in two different looking games and for good reason. One was more about the Knicks’ defense and other more about the Knicks’ offense, but either way, NYK matches up well against Chicago. They’ve also been extremely efficient against bad defenses lately and worry not, Chicago is a bad defense. They can get a block here and there but against an interior-driving team like NYK, led by Jalen Brunson, they fold real quick. We’ve seen it before – the Knicks are just too physical for the Bulls right now, who just got two phony wins against teams in disarray. Give me the Knicks to respond at home.
Cavs -4 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Cavs superior defense will be a problem for Toronto tonight. Pascal Siakam had an MVP like performance against a tired Knicks team the other night, and that’s the biggest reason why they were able to eke out a win. But Siakam isn’t built and the Raptors can’t depend on him to score like that in every game. And it won’t happen tonight. Cleveland is tops of the NBA in mid-range and rim defense, the two areas where Toronto prefers to shoot the ball from. Which then begs the question– why have the Cavs already lost twice to Toronto? The first game was in the very beginning of the season; it takes awhile for a team with new skill players to come together. And in the second matchup– Cleveland faced Toronto without Jarett Allen. Allen is probably their most important defensive piece and when both bigs are healthy, the paint is a really tough area for any opponent to score. Lamar Stevens, who would add another big and another defensive boost, is also questionable. We’ll like this wager even more if both play and we think they will, but I still love this spot for Cleveland at home in a series where they need to snag their first win. Also, the Raptors aren’t as good of a perimeter defense. Besides Kevin Durant, no one is playing more minutes and shooting a more effective FG % than Donovan Mitchell. I think he can torch Cleveland tonight. That’s exactly what Mitchell and Garland did to the Bucks the other night. Okay I’ve written long enough- go Cavs!
Grizzlies -2 (-110), to win 2 units
According to the NBA Injury Report, the Grizzlies will be as healthy as they’ve ever been . Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr, and even Desmond Bane should suit up in this big Western Conference showdown. Morant recently said he’s not worried about anyone in the West, which the Suns’ probably take offense to, but that doesn’t mean they can do anything about it on Friday. According to multiple reports, Booker and Payne will both be out tomorrow, two of the biggest contributors to the Suns’ offense. That’s not a good thing against the hyper-paced Grizzlies. Fresh off an embarrassing loss, the Grizzlies will be as aggressive as ever in this big spotlight game. That’s always how they score, but driving to the rim angry is even better when you’re already in a bad mood. I love Memphis at this line.
Kings 1H over 60.5 (-120), to win 1.25 units
This game could be a blowout but I’m not as confident about that as I am the setup for Sacramento to score a lot of points. I’m also not as confident in the full game total over since it could be a blowout and things tend to slow down at that point. This is one of the worst spots for any team I’ve seen all season – Washington is on their 6th game in 10 days and the 6th and final leg of their horrific road trip. Fresh off a defeat by the Jazz where the Wizards simply ran out of gas late in the contest, now they have to pick themselves up the very next day and play a rested Kings team at home. At this point we all know how explosive the Kings can be. They’re healthy, they’ve been at home, and their offense (much like the Jazz) runs in transition as good as any in the NBA. That’s the achilles heel for the Wizards’ defense, especially when they’re this exhausted. All bets on the Kings are probably good ones, but we’re going with a fast start against a tired defense.
