Like a lot of overs today – insert nervous emoji.
SAC at Philly over 229 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Philly’s defense has really devolved (21st last 5 games) and the Kings just had a terrible game against the Knicks, couldn’t find ANY offensive rhythm. Sacramento shot just 10-39 from three, 23-35 from the free throw line, and turned the ball over 16 times in that game against the Knicks- I expect positive regression tonight. There’s been a dropoff without DeAaron Fox the last 2 games, for sure, and players like Malik Monk, who’s been great off the bench, haven’t been efficient. Fox should return tonight– he practiced Monday. Philly also hasn’t really beaten any good teams lately. They’re also not great at defending the fast break (SAC is 5th in FB points), while SAC isn’t great at defending in the paint or defending the 3 point shot. OVER: I have it at 232.
Warriors/Bucks 1Q over 59.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Bucks are scoring over 30 ppg in the 1Q over their last 6 contests, starting off hot and fast in every game. They’ve always matched up well with the Warriors, who can’t defend Giannis worth a damn unless the Bucks are in a really weird spot. This isn’t that spot. They’re at home off a sleepy game against Houston where Giannis was just off the entire game. I expect the big man to eat today, the pace to be high, and both to push for points early. Milwaukee’s defense can step up late, only taking an early 1Q over.
Pelicans -1.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Pelicans TT over 118 (-110), to win 1 unit
Pels/Jazz 3rd QTR over 60.5 (-104), to win 1.5 units
Yea I just don’t see any reason to play off the Pels right now. They’re a team to play ON, functioning at a very high level right now behind a determined Zion, really good defense (especially interior defense), and really high chemistry. They lost in their first matchup, very early in the season, against the Jazz and will look to get some revenge tonight. Valanciunas and Herb Jones and Brandon Ingram all had weird games in that first battle, plus it was way before they developed this kind of chemistry. Who these teams are now compared to who they were nearly 2 months ago? Different universe. Both of these squads come out of halftime scoring more efficiently, both averaging 30 ppg or more in the 3rd period, and I love that angle tonight. The first half could be fiesty and lower scoring than expected but I think things break loose later in the game. The Pels had a poor shooting performance overall in their first game against Utah and the Jazz defense has really declined. Give me a bunch of overs and a win for the Pels – a team to be reckoned with right now!
