Game 7 Eastern Conference Finals: Heat-Celtics
Miami is on the verge of the biggest collapse in NBA playoff history, or are they? Well according to social media, beat writers and apparently ESPN knew, this series is over folks. But as Lee Corso says “not so fast!” Where have we seen this story before? The Heat are done, they have given up, stick a fork in them. Weren’t they 2 minutes away from elimination in the play-in game vs Chicago? They can’t beat the Bucks. I believe most people had Milwaukee playing the first week of June, but they got by the Knicks and now surely they can’t go into Boston and win, can they? They do! As 8.5 and 10 point dogs at the TD Garden. Which segways into my next statement. Just in the playoffs alone they have won as 9, 2, 7.5, 13, 4, 8.5, 10 and 4 point underdogs! Safe to say they have done this before, and counting them out is just what they want. Like I said when we backed them when they were 7.5 point dog out-right winners in Milwaukee, they have been here before. They were less than a minute away from a finals appearance this time last year, they know what needs to be done to win this ONE game.
Now how in the hell are they going to beat Boston, in Boston nonetheless? It starts with game changer Jimmy Buckets, these guys rise off his intensity and ability to control the game. He comes off a 5/21 performance, and the game before where he only took 10 shots. but in games 1 and 2, he averaged 31 points and was 12/25 respectively in each contest. I’m expecting a Jordan-like performance from him, as he thrives in these situations. He will need his help from his wings to continue, as they’re shooting over 40% from downtown in this series, a category this team excels in when they win. As this will most definitely be a close game late, I love how Miami has a 4-5% edge at the free throw line in this series. It sounds minute, but could be the difference in the final minutes.
As far as the Celtics go, it might be a weird spot to use this term but I think they peaked too early. I know it’s a 7 game series and obviously they have lost 3 of them, so how could they have peaked? In games 4 and 5 they ‘threw’ a perfect game in every category you would like to apply that too. Game 6 not so much, I don’t need to tell you how lucky they were to get out of South Beach with a victory. If they play that way again, unfortunately for them they won’t be playing a 76ers squad who literally and physically never left the locker room in the 2nd half, they will be in TROUBLE.
Marcus Smart is off back to back games with 20 plus points which bodes well for Miami, because A, we can expect some regression and B, his +/- in this series has been abysmal. Old man Horford has given it his all in this series specifically after Butler pissed him off at the end of game 3. Chasing down loose balls and diving all over the court, but I would not expect the same intensity to continue. As far as Jaylen Brown goes, yes he’s PLAYED in every game but Miami has done a great job limiting him and not letting him take over at any point during this series. Boston continues to jack up the 3, averaging 40 attempts per game, while only making 31%. With this many missed attempts and Miami’s ability to force crucial turnovers, Miami will be able to dictate how this game goes and not let Boston go one of their ‘Celtic’ runs.
Opposed to Miami, Boston has lost just in the postseason alone as 4.5, 10, 8.5, 8, 1, 10.5, 14 and 5 point favorites. This game screams a Boston letdown and watching Coach Mazzulla continue to make mistakes on the sidelines. If you’re backing the Heat with me, don’t worry Doc Rivers will not be in attendance. At least I hope not haha. Miami not only just covers in game 7, I believe they will win this game out-right! This will go down as my biggest play of the year for me personally. Let’s go Jimmy Buckets and the Miami Heat!
Heat +8 (Circa -109) risking 3.27u to win 3u
Heat ML +265 (BetRivers) risking 1u to win 2.65u
Prop: Butler over 28.5 points (PointsBet +100) risking 0.7u to win 0.7u
