To say I’m looking forward to these play-in games ending would be a grand understatement. I never liked the concept and the basketball gods seem to be punishing me for it. Once I saw how the first quarter ended in the Pacers/Warriors game, with 3 straight missed free throws to obliterate my over 60 bet, I knew it was going to be a long night. I also wanted to put a shotgun shell through my TV but fortunately I kept a modicum of control. Gambling is a grind and you have to take the ups and downs in stride and remember it’s a long term game. In the long term, you know what we do here at TheOddsBreakers. Win. Dusting myself off and onto today’s picks:
The Bets:
- Grizzlies/Warriors first half over 108 (-110), 1.5 units
- Valanciunas over 15.5 rebounds (-120), 1.2 units
- Warriors -3.5 (-110), 2 units
- Warriors win (-180), 2.5 units
In case you missed Wednesday’s highly entertaining game between the Warriors and Lakers, it was clear who the best player on the court was– Steph Curry. Curry started off a little slow but then became his usual, unstoppable self. If he couldn’t get open beyond the arc, he would dribble around/through/over the Lakers’ big defenders and take it to the rim. When he did get open beyond the arc, he was as special as ever. Curry was 6 for 9 from 3 point land and had 37 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists in a Warrior-high 41 minutes. His points-prop is appropriately high at 38 (-110) tonight. While that’s a little too high for me to wager on, I wouldn’t be shocked if he scored way beyond that total. Curry will be the key again Friday as the Warriors attempt to earn a playoff bid against a Grizzlies team who easily had their way with the Spurs. But who’s the key for Memphis?
I think it’s Jonas Valanciunas. The 6’11” big man had a fantastic game against a tough Spurs defense 2 nights ago, scoring 23 points and snagging 23 rebounds. I haven’t talked about Valanciunas enough in these articles but that’s on me. Accompanying Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks and other skill players for Memphis, Valanciunas plays basketball like he’s in a rugby contest. He looks like a taller Brock Lesnar with a beard, pushing and prying his way to the rim and roughing up defenders along the way. He also has an Jokic-like elegance to his shot, a nice 1-2 combo for a center who’s counted on often. The Warriors are a small team, everyone knows that, but they played pretty damn big against the Lakers. Kevon Looney grabbed 13 rebounds, Draymond Green had another 9 rebounds and Green made life difficult for the Lakers’ bigs every chance he had. Memphis’ Jaren Jackson is no slouch either, but Valanciunas is the focal piece for the Grizzlies’ front court offense. Golden State’s “bigs” might still be sore from bumping backs and knees with the big men of LAL, so I expect Valanciunas to have his way at the rim tonight. I don’t like the juice we’re paying, but Valanciunas over 15.5 rebounds feels like a great bet.
The total for the first half (108) is too low. The 221 full game total feels more accurate– action tends to slow down in the 4th quarter and both of these teams can play defense– but the Warriors and Grizzlies play at a quick tempo and they match up well on offense against each other. Golden State loves to play perimeter ball and their guards find brilliant ways to get open. Memphis likes to drive the ball and out-muscle their opponents. I expect both squads to have early success until adjustments are made at the half so I’ll gladly take the first half total over. Two quarters over 54 points is not only plausible with these two offenses, it’s likely. On the season, Golden State averages 56.6 ppg at the half, while Memphis averages 55.9 (according to teamrankings.com).
Onto the actual game. This line is up to -210 on the Warriors moneyline, not exactly advantageous, but there’s a lot to like about them in this matchup. I also think they’re a fantastic parlay leg if you like another play in NHL or MLB. Golden State is up to -5 at most books now, which I’d consider a small play on, but I certainly love -3.5 more. I posted that I’m taking the Warriors at -3.5 yesterday, so sorry but not sorry– follow me on Twitter for those lookahead lines! Golden State was easily the better team in the first half against the Lakers. In the second half, different story. For anyone agonizing about the Warriors and claiming that they “should have won” Wednesday night, unfortunately you have to play 2 good halves to beat a team as resilient as the Lakers, and the Lakers absolutely outplayed them in the 2nd. Any-who, this is the second time the Warriors and Grizzlies are facing each other at the Chase Center; Golden State won the first. The Warriors were 2-1 against Memphis on the year and playing at home will be a big advantage Friday. We’ve seen that work wonders in the play-in tournament so far in 5 consecutive games– the home team won every contest.
The Warriors are also the better team. I don’t agree with ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith very often but yesterday he said, “the Warriors will make the NBA pay when Klay Thompson returns next year.” I second that. Steve Kerr is one of the smartest coaches in the NBA, his young roster is developing and playing hard, and they have one of the best players on the planet in Steph Curry. In 2021 they’ve made huge strides on defense, their front court is formidable and they have players who can provide legitimate support for Curry on offense. They won’t be champions this year but I love the Warriors side and moneyline tonight.
