Game 2 between the Clippers and Suns lived up to the hype and we had another winning night, going 2-1 in Tuesday’s NBA bets. In what should be another riveting series, here are my picks and predictions for game one between Atlanta and Milwaukee!
Hawks +7.5 (-110), 1.5 units and
Trae Young over 28.5 points (-114), 2 units:
The playoffs have been a playground for Trae Young. In game one against the Knicks, Trae had 32 points. In game one against Philadelphia, Trae had 35 points. Both games were on the road and the Hawks were considerable underdogs in both matchups, just like tonight. Trae Young and the relentless Atlanta Hawks have surprised many people, including me, this postseason. But Trae Young’s surging popularity has caught me off guard more than anything else. Did I realize he was an exceptional offensive talent? Yes. Did I know he was on the cusp of becoming one of the NBA’s biggest stars? No, I did not. Trae has a rare moxie, a Kobe-like moxie (which is something someone like me doesn’t just throw around; I grew up watching Kobe dominate and emulated him every time I stepped on the court), and it’s what makes him so good in games like this. Another series another underdog role and it’s no issue for Trae. Expect Trae Young and the extremely resilient Hawks to march into Milwaukee full of swagger. In 12 playoff contests, Trae has averaged 29 ppg. In game one, I’m betting on Trae scoring in the 30s, and with confidence.
Onto the actual game. The Hawks and the Bucks are built differently and while I can’t say this series favors the Hawks on paper, I don’t hate how they match up against Milwaukee. We all know the Bucks live and die by the enigmatic presence of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Clint Capela will have his hands full guarding the front court but honestly, he’d be in my top 5 NBA centers as far as a player who’s actually capable of making a difference against the Greek-freak. Giannis is 1st in rebounds this postseason with 13.6 per game. Capela is right behind him with 11.6 rpg. He’s also 6th overall in blocks per game (1.2). Capela is a dynamic athlete and when he’s occupied, John Collins is an equally athletic, fearless defender that won’t be intimidated by Giannis. I don’t think points will come that easily for the Bucks, not as easy as they’re anticipating.
On the offensive end, Atlanta isn’t that inferior either. When Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are doing their parts and when Giannis’ supporting cast is performing up to par, the Bucks are really dangerous. The Hawks could say the same thing, though. We’ve talked about the electricity of Trae. Trae and Bogdanovic can hit shots from anywhere on the court, Capela is dominant at the rim, Kevin Huerta can bust out and have a big game on any night, and like we said in the previous paragraph– John Collins is fearless. As well as Milwaukee has played on defense this postseason (they’re 1st in defensive efficiency), this is a different animal. Miami’s offense strikes fear in absolutely no one and despite how impressive Kevin Durant’s performance was, the Nets were playing without 2 of their big 3 for most of that series. Milwaukee hasn’t had an easy road by any means but the tenacity and confidence of Atlanta’s guards will feel brand new. It’s easy to imagine the undersized Hawks struggle with Milwaukee’s offense– don’t be shocked if the sharpshooters of Atlanta rattle the Bucks on Wednesday night too.
At this point in the playoffs, where only 4 teams remain, a line like this is jarring. The Hawks stunned the Knicks AND the 76ers and they’re still not getting respect? Correct. But the line is probably right. Milwaukee is tried and tested and poised to assert themselves this year– Giannis is healthy, Khris Middleton has stepped up more than he’s dropped the ball and Jrue Holiday was the puzzle piece they were missing. On top of all that, they’re at home. I doubt this line will fall any more (in fact, it may climb) and it would be perfectly unsurprising if the Bucks beat the Hawks by a good margin. Still, Atlanta has proven over and over again how tough and well-coached they are. In pressure moments, they’re unafraid and aggressive. I love that in a postseason team. Trae Young has never defeated Giannis, but that doesn’t mean they can’t cover (or turn that trend around). I’m on the Hawks getting 7.5 along with my Trae prop.
