Another day another dollar– our lone pick hit last night (Clippers ML) and we’re now 7-1 this week betting the NBA playoffs! Can we keep the winning streak alive? Here are my picks and predictions for the Hawks/Bucks game two!
Trae Young over 30.5 points (-120), 1.5 units and
Khris Middleton over 23.5 points (-119), 2 units and
John Collins over 26.5 P/A/R (-115), 1.15 units:
I’m going to avoid picking a side tonight because I think it’s just too unpredictable. If you’re compelled to always bet a side or a total, even if you don’t have a strong angle, you might be what this industry calls an “action junkie.” That’s not what we do here. We’re sharp at TheOddsBreakers, right? Right. While I lean the Hawks at +8 (and how could I not after what we all witnessed?), I can’t pull the trigger today. While I think the Hawks will make this a long and interesting series, the Bucks were 26-10 at home this season and their offense typically thrives in front of their crowd. Giannis should come out with a fiery aggression in an attempt to push his way into the front court and other Milwaukee players are due for some positive regression tonight. Just like we can’t underestimate the Hawks, it’s equally unwise to underestimate the former MVP and his Bucks. But first, let’s talk about an emerging superstar (it’s not arguable anymore) in Trae Young:
Taken from an ESPN article posted today, “As McMillan addressed his team with 5:49 left on the game clock and the score knotted at 84, Trae Young stood, hands on hips, eyes fixated on his coach, a trip to the Eastern Conference finals just minutes away. His father, Rayford, watching from the stands, was riveted by the unwavering focus of his son. ‘The way Trae stands at attention when Coach McMillan speaks, the way he looks him in the eye for the duration of those timeouts, it’s night and day compared to previous coaches,” Rayford says. “Trae believes in Nate — and Nate believes in Trae.'”
I think it’s fair to say that the basketball world has been put on notice– Trae Young is the real deal. Even better for us sports bettors who believe in Trae– his coach believes in him, too. The midseason firing of Atlanta’s former head coach Lloyd Pierce and the transition to Nate McMillan has made all the difference for this team. They instantly played harder, more disciplined, more spirited, and the shackles were taken off Trae. At 22, Trae has been given the keys to lead his team into the playoffs and we’ve seen the results. People keep doubting the 6’1″ guard out of Oklahoma and all it does it give him more fuel. Averaging nearly 33 ppg on the road this postseason and becoming one of only three players in the history of the NBA to score 350+ points and obtain 100+ assists in their first 13 playoff games, the Bucks will certainly try to limit the sharpshooter in game two; I just don’t think they’ll have much success. The great thing about playing on this prop is it’s very unlikely that the Hawks will ever be winning by significant margin in this series. That means there’s little chance that Trae will be taken off the court and an even smaller chance that he won’t have ample opportunities to score over 30 points in every game. Whether Atlanta wins or loses tonight, I’m betting that Trae still gets his.
While Trae was taking over game one, Khris Middleton was doing Khris Middleton things. It’s nothing we haven’t seen before– every few games Middleton suddenly has a really abysmal performance. He looked shaky and timid in game one and the stats show it: he was only 0-9 from beyond the arc and 6-23 from the field for 15 points. While Giannis will still shoulder the load for Milwaukee, he shouldn’t have to do it alone. Jrue Holiday put on a fantastic performance Wednesday (14-25 from the field, 33 points) but I wouldn’t expect that to continue. Jrue is better as a contributor while Middleton and Giannis typically score about half of Milwaukee’s points. If this was fresh off a big game from Middleton I’d be hesitant to take his prop bet Friday, but game two is still in the comfortable surroundings of Fiserv Forum and he should be primed for a redemption game tonight.
Second only to Trae Young, John Collins really stood out Wednesday. The stats won’t show the full story but Collins was extremely aggressive in the first contest. Nagging Giannis and PJ Tucker and at times Brook Lopez all game, (the latter two only combined for 11 points), Collins set an aggressive tone from the opening tipoff. He and Capela gathered an astounding 34 rebounds (15 for Collins, 19 for Capela) and Collins added 23 points, too. Like his enigmatic point guard, John Collins has a fearlessness and confidence that’s hard to measure. While I can see Milwaukee putting the clamps down on Capela and throwing extra bodies on the big man under the rim, I don’t think any of their bigs can completely limit Collins. The 6’9″ power forward out of Wake Forest is sneaky strong and wildly athletic and whether it’s by points or rebounds or both, a P/R/A prop of only 26.5 feels particularly low considering his style of basketball. I like the way he matches up against the Bucks and I expect another solid performance tonight.
I emphasized this in my podcast yesterday and I’ll say it again: I’m really enjoying this burgeoning Atlanta Hawks team. While we all expect them to lose tonight, would it be shocking at all to see them go up 2-0? Definitely not. This is a compelling, confident, energetic team that plays exceptionally well as a unit. Either way, I’m betting that their stars will shine again in what should be another heavyweight back-n-forth battle for 48 minutes. Good luck in your bets and happy Friday!
