One NBA team has officially made the NBA Finals– who’s next?! We’re 13-8 over the last 10 days in NBA betting after last night’s performance by the Suns stifled my 2 picks. All good — we move on to this injury-prone series between the Hawks and Bucks, where my bets will look a little different tonight. Happy Friday’s eve!
Today’s bets won’t be very traditional because this isn’t a traditional game. I’m not sure how to tackle a side or total considering Trae Young’s status is still uncertain, and even if he plays it’s likely he’ll be a different version of himself, and it looks like Giannis will sit out tonight, too. I lean the Bucks at home as a slight favorite since I think they’re the better all-around team and the crowd-advantage should help. I also lean the under 215.5 since I expect another feisty, scrappy contest, not to mention the fact that both units are missing their superstars. Those are just leans, though. Instead, I’ll fire away on a few prop bets.
The Hawks did a fantastic job in game four rallying around each other and their ailed star. Both teams will need big efforts from role players in game five. Here are the players and the player props I’m betting on:
Khris Middleton over 27.5 points (-116), 2 units: The up and down trends of Khris Middleton continue. We called his lapse in game four and it came true– of course the blowout nature of that game only helped us. Either way Middleton regressed, as he usually does, and was only 6/17 from the field. Despite our criticism of the Bucks #2 role player (and my comparing him to a bag of Doritos…) he should have ample opportunities to avenge himself tonight with Giannis sitting out. Above all other players, Middleton should play the most minutes and have the most shot attempts of any Buck. I’m on his over.
PJ Tucker over 5.5 points (-114), 1.5 units: Game four showed us an enlivened and more aggressive PJ Tucker in the 1st quarter and I think that version will show up throughout game five tonight. With Giannis out and more bodies needed in the front court, expect Tucker, who’s built like a damn linebacker, to throw his body into the mix for some high percentage field goals. He’s also good for a nice 3-ball here and there. This is a low prop in a game where a lot of Milwaukee players need to step up– I think he surpasses the 5.5 with ease.
John Collins over 8.5 rebounds (-123), 1.5 units: If anyone will benefit from Giannis’ absence on defense and Capela’s limited capacity on offense, it’s John Collins. The stringy forward is no stranger to aggressive play and the Hawks have shown they have no lack of energy on the road. With Giannis out and Capela questionable entering tonight, someone will need to step up and fill the holes in the front court for Atlanta. I’m on Collins to have a big rebounding night and you may want to look at his P/R/A props, too.
