Happy Horse Racing Saturday everyone. We’ve reached the second leg of The Triple Crown from Pimlico Raceway in Baltimore to see if Mage can capture the first two races and give us some drama heading to Belmont.
I am including picks here for the first 13 races on the card, if you’re playing the last stakes race and the late local card you’re likely drunk and chasing or an absolute die hard. (I’ll be playing them) The weather looks great so track conditions should be fast. The races get started early at 9:30 AM CDT so West Coasters make sure you set your alarms. I’ll give you my pick to win with a brief analysis and my top 4 for each race. How you build those Exacts, Trifectas and Multi-Race bets is up to you.
Race 1 – Allowance – 5 Furlongs (Turf) – Purse:$60,000 – Post Time 9:30 AM CDT
We kick the day off with some minimal winners in a turf sprint. I landed on the 5 Monster Mason with the hope that if he can clear the gate and hang with the early leaders. The horse has been wildly inconsistent, but has top speed ratings that rival the favorites and has better late pace than most of the field.
Win: 5 Monster Mason
Top 4 if playing exotics: 5-3-2-1
Race 2 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt) – Purse $64,000 – Post Time 10:05 CDT
Nice big field here for an early long race on the dirt. The favorite 5 Iywaan has certainly had the most trips into victory circle in the field, but is a closer and has had more success when he hasn’t had to push to keep up early. He hasn’t been able to rally from sub 48 1/2 Mile trips. I expect 3 Be Better and 7 Tate to push the pace on this one and it may be too much for the favorite. 3 Be Better has been better at this longer two turn distance as well and performed well on a muddy track last time and should be even better on this fast track.
Win: 3 Be Better
Top 4 if playing exotics: 3-7-5-6
Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) – Purse $57,000 – Post Time – 10:41 CDT
Not a ton of history in this group of Maidens. This one feels wide open. I like the 10 He’s Got Swagger to strut to a victory after just missing in a fast paced trip at Churchill on Oaks Friday.
Win: 10 He’s Got Swagger
Top 4 if playing exotics: 10-5-4-13
Race 4 – The Sir Barton Stakes Sponsored By Brandon and Diannah Perry To Benefit The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance – 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 11:16 CDT
The first stakes race of the day is a mouthful and also the first of three appearances by a Bob Baffert horse the 4 Arabian Lion who opens as a big 2/5 Favorite. The 4 gets Lasix for the first time and comes in after giving scratched Preakness hopeful First Mission all he could handle at the G3 Lexington Stakes. He takes a step down in class here and should be able to take care of this field. Only worry is that he has struggled in the stretch both times he has had Johnny V in the saddle. Hoping they have it figured out here. I’m all chalk here so only way to make money is probably to play the exacta’s or put him into a multi-race play.
Win: 4 Arabian Lion
Top 4 if playing exotics: 4-6-3-1
Race 5 – Allowance – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) – Purse $60,000 – Post Time 11:51 CDT
One stakes race at a time I guess as we go back down here. The ladies take center stage and it looks like we should see some early speed from 8 Cecilita and 9 Lifelovenlaughter as they try and get to the front from the outside. The 9 has some interesting metrics, but will be making her 3 year old debut against some older horses here. I think the early speed benefits the 6 Tequilera who was ridden slow last time out and couldn’t answer in deep stretch against horses who still had something left in the tank. Also watch the 7 Amani’s Image who comes back to distance after a one race sprint warm up in 2023. She had a 1:44 Flat trip at this distance last year.
Win: 6 Tequilera
Top 4 if playing exotics: 6-7-8-2
Race 6 – The Chick Lang Stakes Presented By Case Tractor (G3) – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse $200,000 – Post Time 12:29 CDT
A small field dirt sprint here. Another Baffert Horse and another big favorite in the 1 Havnameltdown. He almost won the Saudi Derby when stretched out to a mile and already has a G2 and G3 victory under his belt while winning 4 of 5 out west. I think this horse is beatable though as the speed he’ll see here even from this small field is better than his last few trips. There will be strong pace up front here from the 2 Ryvit and 3 Frosted Departure. The 3 ran well in the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day event after being bumped at the start. The best time at this distance is held by the 5 Super Chow, but he hasn’t seen the early speed coming his way either. This one is wide open folks. Whoever gets the best trip inside likely pulls this out.
Win: 2 Ryvit
Top 4 if playing exotics: 2-3-1-5
Race 7 – The Galorette Stakes Presented By Pepsi Zero Sugar (G3) – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 1:08 CDT
Back to the ladies here in a G3 Turf race featuring some solid international visitors. Graham Motion has 3 horses in the race including the 2 Sopran Basilea (IRE) who was a G2 winner in Italy. She’s been off since October, but is in a barn who has hit 11 of the last 27 coming off layoffs between 6 months and 1 year. The 6 Bipartisanship (GB) who is also with Motion put up a fast time at this distance last trip at Keeneland. Chad Brown trained 1 Whitebeam (GB) lost by a neck in her American debut in a really slow paced trip, and should improve here with some acclimation.
Win: 2 Sopran Basilea
Top 4 if playing exotics: 2-1-6-5
Race 8 – The Dinner Party Stakes Presented By Bulleit Bourbon (G3) – 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) – Purse $200,000 – Post Time 1:49 CDT
The 1 Atone showed up and closed big time to win in the G1 Pegasus World Cup in January, but then floundered in the G2 Muniz in March. He has had some rough starts, but does seem to bounc back. The 4 Hurricane Dream finished 10th in that same Pegasus race, but dominated a recent allowance. Another 3 entry race here for Graham Motion, but I think Michael Maker and 1 Atone when on their best is clearly the one to beat here.
Win: 1 Atone
Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 1-4-2-7
Race 9 – The Skipat Stakes Presented By Old Bay (G3) – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 2:31 CDT
Wide open ladies dirt sprint here. We should see the 5 Princess Kokachin go to the front right away with the hope of wiring the field as she did her last trip with Jevian Toledo on board. We should see the 3 I’m the Boss of Me join her at the front. I think those two will get tangled up too fast right away and let the 6 Gunning, 2 Beguine, and 9 Olivia Darling make a late move. 6 Gunning is the older half sister to Kentucky Derby winner Mage.
Win: 6 Guinning
Top 4 If Playing Exotics : 6-9-2-5
Race 10 – The Jim Mckay Turf Sprint Stakes Presented By Guinness – 5 Furlongs (Turf) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 3:12 CDT
Well…the race sponsored by Guinness has a horse named 13 Beer Can Man. That’s all were gonna say about that horse. The 6 That’s Right will lead them out to something 21 and change and should be followed closely by favorites 1 Nothing Better and 3 Artemus Citylimits. They will be flying out the gate and I think that sets up nicely for the 5 Smokin’ Jay (Owner has gotta be a Packers Fan right). He put up his fastest time following a sub 21 1/4 two trips back and should get the same ride here with a big chance to close.
Win: 5 Smokin’ Jay
Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 5-1-3-10
Race 11 -The Maryland Sprint Stakes Presented By Big Ass Fans (G3) – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 3:53 CDT
The 8 Straight No Chaser will be gunning for the early lead from the outside as he did last trip with Johnny V who rode him wire to wire for a solid 1:09 Flat at this same distance. The favorite is the 7 Nakatomi, who hasn’t run his best yet this year and could certainly stall the 8 and the 10 Wondrwherecraigis from getting that early jump. If he does he could keep a pace to his liking. I like the idea of one of those further outside being able to wire this field though.
Win: 8 Straight No Chaser
Top 4 If Playing Exotics: 8-10-4-7
Race 12 – The James W. Murphy Stakes Presented By Four Seasons Of Baltimore – 1 Mile (Turf) – Purse $100,000 – Post Time 4:51 CDT
Playing favorite here as 9 Nagirroc looked good last time out trailing Mo Stash for a 2nd at Keeneland. He adds blinkers here from the outside and should find himself in a nice stalking position from the outside. He has plenty of speed to close on the rest of this underwhelming field.
Win: 9 Nagirroc
Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 9-1-4-5
Race 13 – The Preakness (G1) – 1 3/16 Miles (Dirt) – Purse 1,500,000 – Post Time 6:01 CDT
Well here we are the second race of The Triple Crown The Preakness. In what has become a trend many Kentucky Derby Horses who did not win are skipping the Preakness to get a rest and tune up for either the Belmont or another stakes race. This however is the first time there is only one entrant from the Derby entered in the race. I’ve had to pivot here as I was originally on the 8 First Mission. He has been scratched with a hind leg injury. Bob Baffert is back as his two year suspension in Triple Crown races has come to an end, and his horse the 1 National Treasure comes in as the second favorite. He came in third at The Breeders Cup Juvenile to Forte and Cave Rock and certainly has the style and stamina to win this race. He will be looking to upset Kentucky winner 3 Mage. The 3 is a stalker and has done it well his last two times out. He’ll have to move a little quicker here with the slightly shorter race. Steve Asmussen’s 5 Red Route One and Chad Brown’s 7 Blazing Sevens are also stalkers like 3 Mage, but in the big races so far they haven’t really threatened. They’ll need a really hot pace up front and I don’t think they get it. 5 Red Route One did get a win in smaller stakes race last time out in a step down in class. I think Forte is the best juvenile in the country and 1 National Treasure showed to be almost his equal as did 3 Mage. 1 National treasure should come out to the lead with blinkers and the rail. 3 Mage will be more in touch with the pace and lead and shouldn’t have to come as wide as he did in the Kentucky Derby. This is a two horse race for me, but I think 1 National Treasure finally puts together the whole run he’s been waiting for and Baffert and Johnny V get it done here.
Win: 1 National Treasure
Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 1-3-5-7
