Woodbine Saturday, April 29th
-How I will be approaching the Late Pick 4-
Races 7,8,9,10
I believe this Pick 4 has a decent amount of value to it. Yes there will be a heavy favorite in the sequence, but luckily it looks like a 2 horse race, which makes ticket creation fairly easy. Especially this being Woodbine, where you have the 20 cent increments always available.
So basically in Race 9, every ticket that has Horse A(the favorite), you want is in this case 3 times as many tickets alive then to Horse B(the non-favorite). Example: Horse A, 60 cents or 3 tickets alive, Horse B, 20 cents or 1 ticket alive.
Moving on, I say a decent amount of value because the remaining 3 legs really have no clear cut favorite, you can go many ways in these races forcing most bettors to spread for bigger tickets or take stands where they necessarily wouldn’t. Creating some dead money. I personally love making tickets like this for value. Small investment=potentially large outcome.
I have included a few plays to make individually on each race. Also a Pick 3 on races 7,8,9. As always, 20 cent base bets.
Now let’s have fun and win some money!
20 cent Pick 4: 3,5/1,2,5/2,3/2,3,4,6,7=$12 total
40 cent Pick 4: 3,5/1,2,5/2/2,3,4,6,7=$12 total
Race 7: Win and Place #3
We kick off the sequence with a 3yo filly Stakes Race, what can go wrong? Kidding slightly. You can go many ways here, but I have landed confidently on two horses here. My top play is #3 KAVALA. She debuted at Gulfstream in January for 16k for D’Angelo and got claimed by Tharrenos. Whatever Tharrenos saw in the morning was obviously different from D’Angelo; he then ran her 6 weeks later in an OC35k n1x and she galloped. When Irad got into her in the stretch she TOOK OFF. She ran by G. Bennett trained filly Pretty N Awesome like she was standing still, who is fast! As a matter of fact the day of this race Ferrer took off his mounts at Tampa just to ride this filly. Since arriving at Woodbine she has had 3 great works, including a 4F bullet drill of 59.0, 1/33 that day. She has tactical speed and gets Hernandez to ride her. Casse has three in here and it appears Rafael went with Tharrenos, who he rode for a whole 5 times last year. I tossed in #5 JILL JITTERBUG who has been campaigning at Turfway all winter, and doing a heck of a job. Just ran a quality 2nd to Wesley Ward’s undefeated Sunday Shoes. Walsh has himself a runner here, the homebred does her work from off the pace, but boy does she roll late. In a race that looks like they will be going quite fast early, could fall right into Civaci’s hands to pick up the pieces late.
3-5
20 cent Pick 3: 3,5/1,2,5/2,3=$2.40
60 cent Pick 3: 3,5/1,2,5/2=$3.60
Race 8: Trifecta Box 1,2,5
I landed on #5 EMICRACK who seems like the lone and controlling speed. Husbands is teaming up with Denise McClachrie for the first time. This 6yo gelding was ridden by Gallardo and Stein all meet last year, a big upgrade in my opinion. Of the 3 I trust Patrick on the engine more than anyone. Unfortunately this horse has a tendency to give it up late, and run 2nd. Hence a record of 29 starts, 4 wins and 9 PLACES. That leads us to the rail horse #1 COTTON, 2nd off the claim for Drexler for owner Schickedanz. Lands top jockey Rafael Hernandez, this has all the makings of Rafael breaking near the lead and getting a perfect trip. My concerns, when claimed last November it just broke his N3L tag, and was for 15k. Much better class of horses here, but with the barn change and numbers that somehow fit you can’t leave him off your ticket. My last throw in was the classy #2 LENNY K. This horse has been trending in the wrong direction for about a year now. If the old Lenny shows up who ran 3rd to Arzak and Silent Poet off the layoff last April he will be right there. Leaving a classy Kevin Attard horse off of a ticket is never a good idea. Yes I tossed the favorite #3, that dirt form is great and all, but this horse has never shown the same success on the poly.
5-1-2
Race 9: Exacta ($5) 2-3 and ($1) 3-2. Win 3
I think #2 and #3 completely separate themselves from this field, with the race only being 5 ½ furlongs it benefits #3 ROCKCREST tremendously. Which will be my lukewarm top pick. He is the only true sprinter here, yes I know the 2’s record of 7 wins from 9 races but he most certainly likes more ground. Will his class prevail, quite possibly, but if Hoyte gets Rockcrest loose on this lead, look out. This horse has heart and a nose for the wire. He got beat a neck last summer on the grass going 5 vs Stakes Winner Turned Aside. Let’s hope he can hold off #2 FILO DI ARIANNA late.
3-2
Race 10: Win and Place #7
This maiden optional 40 is most definitely the spread leg of the sequence. The catch is it’s 5 furlongs, as opposed to 5 ½ or 6. So a horse off the layoff, which is pretty much all of them, could survive to the wire even if they’re a little short. I tried to use all those types of horses, which is how I landed on the 7 STRIKE THE POSE. Debuted in a 100k State bred filly Stakes race last October at Woodbine, ran 4th out of 5 beaten by 6 lengths, but the number came back a 72. I thought it fits this field perfectly. Trainer Raghunath puts the blinkers BACK ON, which this filly had on her 1st 2 starts and showed some good early lick. Got the winter off and has been training relatively well for this field. Lets hope she can make an improvement of her 2yo races, at 20-1 I’ll take my chances. I threw in FTS #2 simply off that 47.3 gate drill April 22nd, it wouldn’t surprise me in this field. I also tossed in #3 and #6 for the same reasons, good early speed if they get clear could very easily hold on. Last number i tossed in was #4, low % jockey and trainer, but her numbers fit here and should get the trip, might even be the favorite.
7-2-3-6-4
As always make these plays at your own risk, and make them for whatever amounts are suitable for you, this is how I would play them. Again good luck and have fun!
