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So far 4-7, -1.02 units. Let’s BUILD!
What a great slate of games today, tons of story-lines, tons of action, tons of tears and I’m sure as always tons of drama. It will be hard to beat the Furman buzzer beater yesterday, but as I have learned over the years, always expect the ‘unexpected‘.
Of the 16 game slate today I have narrowed it down to 7 games.
Starting with one of my top plays at 2:00pm ET, the Gaels.
Yes St. Mary’s burned me and many others in the Conference championship, but I expect Coach Bennett to have the squad fully prepared today to take down the A-10 champs. When I originally went through this game, I saw some staggering stats for the Rams, but as I dug deeper into them who were these great numbers against? St. Louis, Richmond, George Mason? Now don’t get me wrong they took care of business and you can only beat what’s in front of you, but their lack of non-conference competition will be the difference maker today. St. Mary’s lost 2 of their last 3, but to the Zags. Who they beat earlier in the season. I absolutely love this trend, the Gaels are 12-1 ATS off a loss of their L13 and are 6-1 off a DD loss at home in their L7. It’s culture and belief that make up these numbers. I think their stifling defense will be too much for VCU, and they come out of the gate rolling putting that Gonzaga disaster of loss in their rear view mirror!
Play(s):
1H: St. Mary’s -1.5 (FanDuel -115) 0.5 unit
St. Mary’s -4 (Caesars -110) 1.4 units
Let’s move on to the middle slate!
As I stated in my previous article, UConn is everyone’s favorite 4 seed to make a big run, including mine to make the Elite 8. They rank top 10 offensively and defensively, specifically their defense is what stands out to me. Playing in the high scoring Big East is one tough assignment. Somehow they have held teams to 41% shooting, 30% from beyond the arc and giving up an unimaginable 22 made field goals per game. Now on offense they’re pretty good too, crashing the boards at 11.8 per game as well as averaging 17.3 assists per game. This previously ranked #1 team in the country started the season 14-0, also beat #1 overall seed in the tournament Alabama, but then stumbled to a 2-6 stretch. Dropping them in the ranking as well as seeding. I beleive they take this game wire to wire and cover comfortably.
Play:
UConn -9 (BetRivers -110) 1.25 units
NC St will take on Creighton. This is my 2nd strongest play of the day, as well as my Best Bet upset in the Round of 64. While the Wolf Pack may be at a talent disadvantage, they surely don’t lack in SPEED and determination. Where I have seen Creighton be successful is point blank out shooting teams at an extremely high %, the second that % drops they turn into a different unit. These NC St boys force 13.4 turnovers per game. This will put the Blue jays completely out of rhythm and unable to gain the momentum needed to shoot NC St out of the gym. On the other end SPEED, SPEED and SPEED is what the Wolf Pack have, and they will look to use every ounce of it for this upset to move on. Where they have struggled, is against good defensive teams, Creighton is not that! Getting to the rim is the Wolf Pack’s specialty, and a department Creighton surely has struggled in. On 5 days or more rest, NC St is 5-1 in those games. When you give this squad extra rest, man do these guys fly around.
Play(s):
NC St +5.5 (DraftKings -110) 1.75 units
NC St ML +190 (DraftKings) 0.45 unit
We head to the 7:10 and 7:35pm ET slot, where Coach Calipari will take on former high recruit Bryce Perkins and the Friars.
While most remember Kentucky’s early exit in last year’s dance, the players have not forgotten either. Luckily for them Providence severely struggled down the stretch losing 4 of 5, 3 in a row and handily beaten in a few of them. Specifically vs Seton Hall on Senior Day. Whereas Kentucky appeared to figure it out down the stretch, with the exception of Vanderbilt who beat them twice in 3 games. They won the other 5, against quality teams such as, at Arkansas, vs Tennessee and Auburn. UK is going to hit the glass hard, get plenty of 2nd chance opportunities and will be able to get the ball out to their shooters. Providence could hang around, but in the end the Wildcats will have too much firepower to stay in the game.
Play:
Kentucky -4 (Caesars -110) 0.7 unit
25 minutes later, Grand Canyon takes on the Zags. As I stated before, the high scoring, hot hand WAC champs take on a hungry Gonzaga squad who look to avenge an early round exit just last season. Over is the Antelopes middle name(not literally), going over in 24 of their 32 games, as well as going over in 19 of their 24 night games. Now they face the #1 offense in the country in FG% and FG’s made.
Play:
Over 154 (DraftKings -110) 0.5 unit
Onto my final two plays of the day, including my Best Bet and 3 unit CRUSH!
FAU will move onto the AAC in 2023, so tonight they will get a little taste of what it’s like to play with bigger schools. The Owls won 31 games, took care of business and, well I don’t have a and. They had a cupcake non-conference schedule, with their 2 ‘tough’ games against UF and Ole Miss, only to split those. Tonight they take on Coach Hardaway who has plans of making it to at least the 2nd weekend. Fresh off their AAC conference title vs #1 seed Houston, Coach was right back in the video room studying the Owls. Memphis has locked it down defensively as of late, giving up 35.8% shooting, 26.5% from downtown, only 11 assists a game, as well as causing 15 turnovers per affair. This style will give the Owls fits on the offensive end and be the difference in this game!
Play:
Memphis ML -125 (Bet365) 3 units
At 9:55pm ET, the Hoosiers take on the defenseless MAC champs. OK Kent St doesn’t look that bad defensively, but playing the MAC night in, and night out can make any team with the ability look like superstars. Taking on at one point one of the better teams in the BIG TEN will be a tough ask. Indiana has the ability to turn it on at both ends, and while all their attention will be on TJD, stopping the rest of the Hoosiers will be extremely difficult.
Play:
Indiana -4.5 (FanDuel -110) 0.6 unit
Good Luck to everyone playing today, pick some winners, make some cash and hopefully I provided with necessary insight to crush today’s card!
