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Welp, what can I say? The last few days have been AMAZING and I’m very grateful. We’re at over 30 units in the NBA, we went 10-5 in premium NFL picks this weekend, and we’re 4-0 so far in Circa. Our last pick? The Steelers at +3.5. This line has moved to -2 in favor of Pittsburgh after Cleveland got knocked out of playoff contention. Lock and load people– here are a few ways to bet tonight’s final MNF game!
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NFL Circa Picks: 56-27-1 (66%)
NBA: 122-98 (56%), +30.52 units
Eli and Peyton are back (that alone is enough reason for me to watch this game) and it’s likely Ben Roethlisberger’s final game at Heinz Field. Let’s look at some of the other factors playing into this contest:
- The Browns were officially eliminated last night after the Chargers defeated the Broncos Sunday. One has to question how much motivation they’ll have tonight.
- Baker Mayfield’s future is very uncertain in Cleveland. The 3rd year QB has had yet another volatile season and despite his overconfidence and many commercial appearances, he was unable to lead an ultra-talented Browns team to the playoffs.
- The Steelers defense is as healthy as they’ve ever been all season. TJ Watt, Cameron Hayward, Joe Haden, and Minkah Fitzpatrick are all good-to-go. The Steelers also get back tight end Pat Freiermuth tonight.
- Kareem Hunt and Malik Johnson are questionable for Cleveland. Three other contributors are also out for MNF.
- Statistics may lead you to think that the Pittsburgh defense is mediocre. They’re last in the NFL in rush yards allowed per attempt, they allow 24.7 ppg (23rd), and they allow 6.9 pass yards per attempt (22nd), but don’t let that fool you. The Steelers have been destroyed by injuries throughout the year. When this defense is healthy, they’re elite. Despite all their injuries, the Steelers are ranked 2nd in sack percentage and they’re easily a top 10 defense against the pass when healthy.
- The Browns strategy will likely be to run the ball down Pittsburgh’s throat tonight. Baker has been incredibly inconsistent and the Steelers haven’t been good against the run. But the Steelers know that, too. Expect Pittsburgh to force Baker into uncomfortable passing situations and if that’s the case, I trust the Steelers’ defense considerably more. It worked when they beat Cleveland on Halloween.
- The Steelers defeated the Browns 15-10 in their first matchup, limiting Baker and their running game and forcing 4 sacks.
- The Steelers can still make the playoffs…
Best Bets for MNF:
- Steelers -2
- Under 42
- Teaser: Steelers +5, Total under 49
- Chubb over 91.4 rushing yards (K. Hunt might be out and this is a nice hedge on the Browns)
