Sitting at 8-6, +1.95u here in Bowl Season, I’m rolling with 2 plays for Monday. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Tulane +2 vs USC–Noon PM CT
After forcing turnovers at an elite rate bailed them out all season, USC’s defense was finally exposed in the Pac-12 Championship vs Utah. We knew their pass defense was shaky entering that matchup, but not even I as a Utah bettor expected the Utes to run for 6.4 YPC on the Trojans. Tulane’s offense is similar to Utah’s in a lot of ways, but the Green Wave have an even stronger running game; Tyjae Spears ran for 6.5 YPC and 15 TD’s this season. QB Michael Pratt is not a world beater, but a 5:1 TD/INT ratio and 8.6 Y/A mark is plenty for me to trust him in this matchup. I’ll concede that USC is as healthy as they’ve been in awhile on this side of the ball, but we’ve seen the red flags all season. I like Tulane’s balance and, while they might not be high-flying, think they will sustain and finish drives.
Betting against this USC offense is tough to do, but this unit will be at far less than full strength. WR1 Jordan Addison opted out, and probably more importantly, they will be without two mainstays along their OL. In just Lincoln Riley’s first season, I don’t believe the Trojans have the quality depth at OL to soften the blow of those losses. Caleb Williams is a special player; I’m not going to talk you off of that. However, I also believe this is one of the best defenses he’s seen all year(actually THE best according to my power ratings). While pass rush is not a staple of this Green Wave defense, I give them the slight edge up front due to USC’s injury situation. Specifically, though, the Green Wave have been staunch against the run and pass all season; they held RB’s Deuce Vaughn, Frank Gore Jr, and Keaton Mitchell to their worst days of the season. One thing we saw in the Pac12 Championship was how much USC misses RB Travis Dye; replacement Austin Jones was held to just 2.3 YPC vs the Utes. I think Tulane will win handily vs the run and force USC to be one-dimensional.
Caleb Williams will get his, but when it’s all said and done, Tulane is the more balanced and complete team.
*CFB(1u): Purdue +15.5 vs LSU–Noon PM CT
I have been adamant that LSU is one of the most overvalued teams in CFB. While they had quite a bit of success in Tiger Stadium, this team is just 1-5 ATS away from Baton Rouge(I’m 4-0 fading them in this spot). Purdue might not be at full strength, but this number is a bit silly.
The biggest knock on this LSU team is their poor OL play. QB Jayden Daniels has been sacked 4 or more times on 6 separate occasions this year(it would’ve been 7 had he not exited vs Georgia), and that’s despite Daniels being a very mobile QB. I think LSU’s gotten the most out of their run game given they lack elite talent at the RB position, but Purdue’s run defense is quite staunch. The Boilermakers held Illinois to 102 yds rushing, Maryland to 72 yds rushing, Minnesota to 44 yds rushing, and Penn State to 98 yds rushing. Purdue starts to loosen up and become more attackable in their secondary, but I don’t view LSU has some high-flying passing game. Daniels threw for just 7.5 Y/A this season, and LSU is without 2 of its top 3 WR’s for this game.
Purdue will be without QB Aidan O’Connell and top WR Charlie Jones as they opted out. In steps Austin Burton at QB; Burton doesn’t present much of a threat in the deep passing game, but he has completed over 70% of his passes during stops at UCLA and Purdue and gives the Boilermakers a high floor in O’Connell’s absence. Purdue finally found balance in their offense this year in the form of freshman RB Devon Mockobee(5.1 YPC, 9 TD’s), and I think the Boilermakers can establish that part of their offense in this matchup. We saw LSU’s run defense deteroirate towards the end of the season, highlighted by when they allowed nearly 300 yards on the ground to lowly Texas A&M. I haven’t loved this secondary for much of the year and don’t think Burton is an incompetent replacement at QB.
I’m 4-0 fading the Tigers in this role… let’s add to it.
