With CFB winding down, CBB is now the main priority. I carry a 37-31-1(54.4%) record into this portion of the season and will upgrade all plays to 1u moving forward. Tonight, I’m rolling with 4 plays looking to break out in a big way.
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*CBB(1u): St John’s +2.5 vs Marquette–5:30 PM CT
Marquette picked up a massive road win at Villanova on Saturday to add to their already impressive resume. With that said, playing your second straight road game against a St John’s team that ranks 3rd in the country in pace sets up as a horrible matchup. What the Johnnies lack in raw shooting ability, they make up for with their pace alone. For as efficient as Marquette has been offensively, they have not upheld that same standard on the defensive end of the floor. Marquette allows far too many second-chance points, ranking just 233rd in defensive rebounding %. In comparison, St John’s is a Top 30 offensive rebounding team in America.
I like to play against teams in their second straight road game; I think Marquette’s defensive shortcomings get exposed in this particular matchup.
*CBB(1u): Nebraska/Michigan State UNDER 132.5–6 PM CT
While I can’t trust Nebraska’s offense against virtually anybody in the Big10, this defense is legit. The Cornhuskers held a high-flying Iowa offense to just 50 points last week. Prior to that, they held Creighton to 53 and Purdue to just 65. Michigan State is a poor offensive rebounding team that relies too much on elite shotmaking to pull away in these types of games; while they shoot 38% from deep, they shoot less than 45% from the field. Still, Tom Izzo has this defense in tune early in the season, as the Spartans are a Top 60 defensive rebounding team and good on the perimeter. Given Nebraska shoots just 30% from deep and 65.5% from the FT line, I’ll absolutely trust them in this spot.
A big consideration in this play is pace. Nebraska ranks 280th in adjusted tempo, while Michigan State ranks 301st. I like this to be an ugly game that stays Under the total.
*CBB(1u): Kentucky 1H -5.5 vs LSU–7 PM CT
LSU’s 12-1 start needs quite a bit of context. First off, the Tigers have played just 3 Power 5 opponents all season. More importantly, however, is the fact that LSU has yet to play a true road game this season. In just Matt McMahon’s first season and with a roster composed solely of transfers, we’ve yet to see how this team responds in tough road environments.
By contrast, this Kentucky team has played Michigan State, Gonzaga, Michigan, UCLA, and Missouri already this season. I know sentiment is low on Calipari’s squad right now, but the Wildcats undoubtedly hold an edge on both ends of the floor tonight.
Early in this game and in an unfamiliar environment, I think we see LSU at their worst.
*CBB(1u): Minnesota TT UNDER 56 @ Wisconsin–8 PM CT
Possessions will be at a premium here as both teams run at a bottom 50 pace in America. Wisconsin in particular will slow this game to a snail’s pace while playing their style of staunch defense. Minnesota endured a similar matchup a few weeks ago and put up just 51 vs Mississippi State…and that was in their home arena. This is also the same Gophers offense that put up just 53 against a fast-paced, poor defensive team in DePaul earlier in the year.
In total, the Gophers shoot just 42.5% from the field, 59% from the FT line, and will have virtually no leeway for second-chance points tonight. That’s more than enough for me to trust the Badgers’ defense in this spot.
