After a 3-0 Thursday, I was disappointed with not being able to follow that up with a profitable weekend. Overall, my MLB record sits at 97-95-3, -0.49u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to start the week off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): White Sox F5 TT OVER 2.5(+105) @ Guardians–6:10 PM CT
The White Sox struggled mightily vs right-handed pitching over the first month-and-a-half of the season, but they have steadily started to figure righties out over the course of the summer. Since June 1st, the Sox hold an impressive 113 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching on the road. Today, they’ll not only get a favorable matchup, but they’ll also benefit from some favorable conditions.
Guardians SP Cal Quantrill has pitched above his capabilities over the last 2 years. His FIP was over a full run higher than his ERA last season(left 80% of runners stranded), and we’ve seen a similar pattern this season. The one thing I know in this matchup is that they White Sox are going to have their opportunities because Quantrill allows exactly 1 hit per inning. However, despite striking out less than 6 batters per 9 innings, Quantrill is a fly ball pitcher(1.11 GB/FB rate). We’ve consistently seen him escape trouble by the skin of his teeth, but on a night where the wind is going to be blowing out upwards of 12 mph, I think some of those long outs are going to turn into homers for the Sox lineup.
I liked what I saw from Chicago’s lineup this weekend matching up with an underrated Detroit pitching staff. This lineup has gotten healthier in recent weeks and, as I mentioned, has improved in this role throughout the course of the season. Getting a slight return at +105, I feel comfortable isolating the Sox offense early in this game.
While I also lean towards the White Sox F5 ML, Lance Lynn has had his struggles with the home run ball in the past. Additionally, his velocity is down almost 2 mph this season; I’m going to need to see more from him before I want to back him.
*MLB(1u): Mets/Braves F5 UNDER 3.5(-120)–6:20 PM CT
Considering the quality of this pitching matchup, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that I want a piece of this F5 Under tonight.
Braves SP Max Fried has blossomed into an extremely consistent arm for the Braves. The lefty holds a 2.52 ERA and 1.02 WHIP entering tonight and has allowed 1 ER or less in over half of his starts this season. While I like how the Mets match up vs right-handed pitching, they have struggled against lefties away from Citi Field this season(94 wRC+). The Mets also struggled at the plate vs the Marlins’ top 2 starters this weekend, and things won’t get any easier tonight.
Mets SP Max Scherzer is a freak of nature; in his first start back from the IL, Scherzer allowed just 2 baserunners and struck out 11 Reds in 6 innings. Scherzer holds a 0.88 WHIP on the season, but a 0.90 WHIP on the road is perhaps even more impressive. The Braves are a good lineup without a doubt, but I think they are slightly overvalued. They hold a 111 wRC+ vs righties at home; while that’s nothing to sneeze at, it’s also not so dominant to suggest that they can’t be held down by an elite pitcher. The Braves have faced some truly horrific arms as of late by nature of playing the Nationals this weekend; this is a MAJOR step up in competition. Scherzer has had a fair amount of success vs Atlanta in the past, and I’m going to expect that to continue tonight.
