I started out the week with a 2-0, +2.05u and now sit at 99-95-3, +1.56u on the MLB season! I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight, including my 4th multiunit play of the MLB season. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1.5u): Cubs F5 TT OVER 2.5(-105) vs Orioles–7:05 PM CT
While it’s been a disappointing season for the Cubbies, they return back home tonight in a role they’ve excelled in all season. Facing right-handed pitching at Wrigley Field this season, the Cubbies hold a 108 wRC+. While that’s not elite, they’ve certainly been steady enough in this role for me to trust them in tonight’s matchup.
Perhaps nobody has benefited from the Orioles pushing the walls at Camden Yards back more than Orioles SP Jordan Lyles. We’re halfway through the season, and Lyles has yet to allow a HR in his home ballpark. With that said, he hasn’t found that same luck on the road. Lyles is allowing 2 HR/9 innings on the road this season, and when you consider he allowed 2.1 HR/9 on the road last season, it’s easy to see this is not a fluke. In addition, Lyles holds an ugly 5.89 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in his road starts this season.
I expect to see multiple balls leave the yard early in this game and for the Cubs to eclipse this F5 TT with relative ease. Let’s make it 3-1 on multiunit plays!
*MLB(1u): Tigers ML(+100) @ Royals–7:10 PM CT
The Tigers get a lot of hate from the baseball community(rightfully so), but how come the Royals get off scott-free despite holding the 2nd worst record in the American League? As I handicap this game, I see no reason the Tigers should be ‘dogs.
Royals SP Kris Bubic has had a disastrous 2022 campaign. When you consider he’s allowed nearly 11 hits/9 while simultaneously walking 6 batters/9, it’s not hard to see why he has some of the worst numbers among starting pitchers in the league(6.84 ERA, 1.87 WHIP). I’ve seen no reason to believe tonight is the night Bubic turns things around. While the Tigers’ offense has been piss poor overall this season, they’ve surprisingly been good in this role. Against left-handed pitching on the road, the Tigers rank 11th with a 104 wRC+. That’s only above average, but they match up far better with Bubic than this line would indicate.
Tigers SP Beau Breiske has impressed me this season. While his 4.16 ERA and 1.22 WHIP don’t jump out, Brieske has shined in some of his toughest road starts. He recorded quality starts in both Houston and New York(Yankees), and in his last start, he twirled 6.1 shutout innings in Chicago(White Sox), only allowing 3 baserunners. This is quite frankly a dream matchup for Breiske, as the Royals rank just 28th in wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark this season. Additionally, the Royals just lost their iron man Whit Merrifield, making an already weak lineup even weaker.
There is also a MASSIVE bullpen discrepancy in this matchup. The Royals rank dead last in MLB with a 1.51 bullpen WHIP. On the other hand, Detroit’s bullpen has been strong all season, entering tonight with the 8th best bullpen WHIP in the league.
*MLB(1u): Giants -1.5(+100) vs Diamondbacks–8:45 PM CT
The Giants have underperformed all season long, but this is a total and utter mismatch. If they can’t win comfortably in this matchup, the Giants really are doomed.
Giants SP Logan Webb was born to pitch at Oracle Park. Last season, the young righty held some of the best home numbers in baseball(1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). This season, Webb has yet to allow a HR in his home ballpark and still holds a sub-3.00 ERA in this role. The Diamondbacks have taken advantage of some weak arms over the past couple of weeks, but this is a team that relies heavily on the deep ball to produce runs. Not only does Webb limit homers at an elite rate, but he also produces ground balls at one of the highest rates in the league. I like how Webb matches up with this Arizona lineup.
Why is Diamondbacks SP Dallas Keuchel still in the league? In 11 starts this season, all Keuchel has done is pitch to a 7.63 ERA and 1.94 WHIP. With his H/9 sitting at 12.75, Keuchel is truly one of the most hittable arms in all of baseball. The Giants were a team that mashed righties in their home ballpark last season, but this year, they’ve actually been more dependable against lefties at Oracle Park. Gabe Kapler has a plethora of platoon righties that should match up well with the lowly Keuchel tonight.
This game should be over before it starts. I thought getting an even price on this was a bargain to say the least.
