I dropped my lone play last night and now sit at 4-2, +1.33u on the week. Overall, my MLB record sits at 101-97-3, +0.84u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to take some momentum into the weekend. To receive a text when I release my plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Dodgers/Cardinals F5 OVER 5(+100)–6:15 PM CT
The first two games of this series have yielded 13 runs apiece. Looking at this matchup, I expect that trend to continue tonight.
Cardinals SP Dakota Hudson is a guy I look to fade quite often. While his ERA at 4.00 is respectable, his 1.38 WHIP tells a much better story. Hudson is striking out only 5 batters/9 innings while simultaneously walking 4/9 innings; this is a terrible combo. While Hudson has had some success at home, I don’t like how he matches up with this Dodgers lineup one bit. Considering they’ve scored 8 runs/game over their last 3, it’s safe to say this Los Angeles lineup is in good current form. Additionally, they’ve handled righties on the road well this year, ranking 3rd in wRC+ in that role.
Dodgers SP Tyler Anderson was a mediocre-below average pitcher in his first 6 big league seasons, but he has undoubtedly turned a corner this year. With that said, he has pitched much better in the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium than he has away from home(WHIP is 0.27 higher on the road). We’ve seen Anderson struggle in some of his tougher road matchups(4 ER @ Rockies, 4 R @ Reds, 4 ER @ White Sox) against teams that rake lefties, and that’s exactly the role he finds himself in tonight. Against lefties at home this season, the Cardinals rank 2nd in the league with an astounding 141 wRC+. In addition, we’ve seen the bats come alive for St. Louis over their last 4 games after a tough start to the month.
*MLB(1u): Rangers F5 TT OVER 2.5(+110) vs Mariners–7:05 PM CT
Mariners SP Marco Gonzales has pitched to a 3.24 ERA this season, but his 1.31 WHIP is downright ugly. That WHIP jumps all the way up to 1.44 on the road, and this is a tougher matchup than you’d think. On the season, the Rangers rank 5th in wRC+ facing lefties in their home ballpark. Perhaps more importantly, this lineup is in FANTASTIC current form, averaging 7 runs/game over their last 6 and putting up 22 runs in their 3 game set vs the A’s this week. Gonzales has managed to escape some serious trouble this year, but a FIP at 5.14(nearly 2 points higher than his ERA) is a clear sign that his “success” is not sustainable. I’m confident the Rangers will manage to log over 1 baserunner/inning; given we are getting this at plus-money, I’m willing to back an offense that has raked everybody over the past week.
