Coming off a 1-1, +0.1u night, I’m looking to start the weekend off strong. My MLB record for the year sits at 102-98-3, +0.94u, and I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to break out. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Braves/Nationals F5 OVER 5(-105)–6:05 PM CT
Each of tonight’s SP’s faced this same lineup in their last start. I hate this spot for Starting Pitcher’s, and this angle has treated us well this year.
It’s not hard to see why Nationals SP Patrick Corbin is a “play against” arm. In 18 starts this year, Corbin holds an ugly 5.70 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, allowing nearly 12 hits/9 innings. Not only is this a bad spot, but this is a tough matchup facing off against a Braves lineup that ranks 3rd in the league in wRC+ vs lefties on the road. In addition to allowing 4 ER in Atlanta last week, Corbin allowed 6 ER in less than 3 IP vs the Braves in his home ballpark earlier this season. Corbin clearly doesn’t match up well with this lineup, and it wouldn’t be all that shocking if the Braves get this bet through by themselves.
With that said, I hate what I’ve seen from Braves SP Ian Anderson this season. Following a pretty solid rookie campaign in 2021, all Anderson has done is put up an ERA at 5.00 and paired that with a gross 1.51 WHIP. Not only is Anderson allowing over 1 hit per inning, but he’s also walking well over 4 batters per 9 innings. I’m not going to try and convince you the Nationals are come juggernaut offensively, but against Anderson this year, they have managed 6 ER in 9.1 innings.
I want a piece of each of these lineups early in this game facing off against vulnerable arms in a proven-to-be bad spot.
*MLB(1u): Dodgers F5 -0.5(-125) @ Angels–8:38 PM CT
I don’t lay -125 on F5 run-lines often, but if I am, it’s going to be with a guy like Clayton Kershaw. In all honesty, this is a total mismatch.
Kershaw is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, carrying a 2.40 ERA and 1.01 WHIP into tonight’s start. This is a very favorable matchup facing off against an Angels offense that has truly been one of the worst in baseball over the last 2 months. Since June 1st, LAA ranks 29th in wRC+ vs left-handed pitching. In addition, Mike Trout is dealing with a back ailment and is unlikely to play tonight(even if he does play, Trout has just a .704 career OPS in 20 meetings with Kershaw). Aside from Shohei Ohtani(who will have to deal with the lefty vs lefty matchup), the rest of this Angels lineup is atrocious. I think Kershaw delivers a gem in Anaheim tonight.
Angels SP Patrick Sandoval is also a guy I’m going to be looking to fade in the near future. His 2.95 ERA is incredibly deceiving; Sandoval holds a 1.39 WHIP, allowing nearly 1 hit per inning while walking over 4 per 9 innings. The Dodgers have rounded into form over the past 2 weeks, holding an 11-2 record in the month of July and scoring over 5 runs/game in that stretch. They rank 7th in the league in wRC+ vs lefties on the road, which is plenty good enough for me to trust them in this matchup.
*MLB(0.8u): Rockies -1.5(+125) vs Pirates–7:40 PM CT
The Rockies just took 3 out of 4 at home against the Padres and are a team that historically plays very well in their home ballpark. Tonight presents another favorable matchup.
Pirates SP Jose Quintana held an ERA as low as 2.19 in late May, but unsurprisingly, we’ve seen him regress substantially over the course of the season. With a WHIP at 1.31, this is still a guy I’m going to look to fade in his tougher matchups. The Rockies lead the league in OPS vs left-handed pitching in their home ballpark and scored 7 runs/game this week against a talented Padres pitching staff.
Rockies SP German Marquez has had a down year, but he has shown signs of life over his past 4 or 5 starts. While he’s not managed the conditions of Coors Field well this year, he held a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.20 WHIP in this role last year and has been arguably the Rockies’ best arm over the past 5 years. In all honesty, I think he’s catching the Pirates at the perfect time for his sake. Not only has Pittsburgh played extra-inning games in back-to-back days, but this is also their 4th stop on their current road trip. We saw the bats cool off mightily this week in Miami, and overall, they rank just 27th in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching on the road this year.
While neither of these bullpens is particularly good, I do give the Rockies the edge in this area. In addition to knowing how to work around the conditions that Coors Field offers, the Rockies did not use their 3 best arms in yesterday’s win. By nature of playing 2 straight extra-inning games, the Pirates bullpen is absolutely shot. For the guys that do take the mound, I have low hopes as to how they’ll adjust to the conditions at Coors Field.
