We started the weekend off with a perfect 3-0, +3u night. My MLB record for the year moves up to 105-98-3, +3.94u. I’m rolling with 4 plays here on Saturday looking to keep things rolling. To receive a text when I release my plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-120) vs Reds–1:15 PM CT
The Cardinals didn’t get off to the best start in the month of July, but this lineup has scored at least 6 runs in 4 of their last 5 games. Today, they’ll settle into a role they’ve excelled in all year.
Facing left-handed pitching at Busch Stadium this year, the Cardinals rank 5th in baseball with a 133 wRC+. Since June 1st, that number jumps all the way up to 154. They’ll get a favorable matchup facing off against Reds SP Nick Lodolo, an arm that has made just 5 starts at the big league level. In addition to that, Lodolo threw just 82 innings at the Minor League level before being called up. Sure, he was a first round pick a few years ago, but this is clearly not an arm that’s developed enough to be pitching at this level. Don’t take my word for it, just look at his 1.60 WHIP. In any case, this is a tough matchup for Lodolo, and I certainly give the edge to the Cardinals offense.
As insurance, this full game TT allows us to take advantage of the Reds bullpen. Cincinnati’s pen ranks 29th in the league in bullpen WHIP and has been an easy unit to go against all year.
*MLB(1u): Mariners F5 TT OVER 2.5(+105) @ Rangers–3:05 PM CT
The Mariners have won 12 straight games and are currently the hottest team in baseball. Even with that as a side note(which it shouldn’t be), today presents an extremely favorable matchup.
Rangers SP Spencer Howard was a promising prospect, but he has faltered consistently at the big league level. Approaching 100 innings in the big leagues, Howard holds an ugly 7.13 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. He’s allowed 2 HR/9 innings in his big league career, and in his last start against the A’s, he recorded just 1 strikeout in 5 IP. The Mariners have seen righties well this year, ranking 7th in wRC+ in that role. And, like I said, this is the hottest team in baseball right now.
Why exactly are we getting this at plus-money?
*MLB(1u): Giants F5 -0.5(+105) vs Brewers–6:15 PM CT
Giants SP Alex Cobb might hold a 4.57 ERA, but his FIP at 3.14 is much more indicative of the type of pitcher he can be at Oracle Park. Pitching at Angel Stadium last year, Cobb held a 2.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Considering his GB/FB rate sits at 3.66 here in 2022, I would expect his numbers in San Francisco to mirror that before this season is said and done. I like how Cobb’s ground-ball style plays against a hit-or-miss Brewers lineup. The Brewers face quite a few mediocre righties in their division(Pirates and Cubs, specifically) that prop up their overall numbers; I’m not expecting them to adjust to this matchup well.
Brewers SP Eric Lauer has pitched well at home this year, but he has not had the same luck on the road. This year, Lauer holds a 5.24 ERA and 1.38 WHIP away from American Family Field and is allowing 2.3 HR/9 in this role. Considering he held a 1.7 HR/9 on the road last year, it’s clear this is not Lauer’s role. He’ll have to face off against a Giants lineup that ranks 1st in wRC+ vs lefties at home this season. The Giants also scored 6 runs in the 9th off of lefty Josh Hader last night; I like that momentum to carry over into today.
*MLB(1u): Dodgers -1.5(-120) @ Angels–9:07 PM CT
We backed Clayton Kershaw in this matchup last night, and all he did was take a perfect game into the 8th inning. While Julio Urias might not be at Clayton Kershaw’s status, he’ll still enjoy the same luxuries Kershaw did last night. After last night, the Angels officially rank dead last in wRC+ vs lefties since June 1st. Mike Trout is still likely to be out again, so what’s going to change tonight in another tough matchup? Urias holds a 3.01 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this year and has seen no real dip in performance on the road throughout his career.
The Dodgers also took care of business at the plate last night, totaling 12 hits and 9 runs in the blowout win. They’ll face another lefty tonight in Jose Suarez, who is perhaps even more vulnerable than Patrick Sandoval was last night. With a WHIP at 1.52, I have zero trust in Suarez going against this Dodgers lineup.
By nature of winning in a blowout, the Dodgers saved all of their important bullpen arms last night. With that unit fresh, I’m willing to make this a full game run-line play.
