We wrapped up the month of June with a 2-0, +2.1u night! I’m rolling with a trio of plays for tonight looking to start the weekend off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group.
*MLB(1u): Brewers -1.5(-120) @ Pirates–6:05 PM CT
It’s Corbin Burnes Day! I’m 5-1 backing Burnes this season, and we’ll look to add to that tonight. Burnes has been brilliant once again here in 2022, taking a 2.41 ERA and 0.92 WHIP into tonight’s start. Burnes has also had more success on the road each of the past two seasons. The Pirates offense has improved throughout the course of the season, but they are still outclassed in these kinds of matchups. While they have scored 8 runs in each of their past 2 games, they scored just 13 runs in the 5 games before that. The Brewers were without their 3 back-end bullpen arms in last night’s game, but Boxberger, Williams, and Hader are back available tonight; they very well might be the best 7-8-9 inning combo in the league.
Pirates SP Roansy Contreras has pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA here in his rookie campaign, but a 1.35 is a pretty clear indicator that is not sustainable. Contreras is walking over 4 batters per 9 innings and leaving over 80% of runners on base, a big reason why his FIP(or expected ERA) is above 4.00. The Brewers offense is in very good current form entering tonight, scoring 6 runs/game over their last 7 games. The Pirates bullpen ranks a measly 24th in bullpen WHIP and will likely be without their best arm in David Bednar tonight after he threw 30 pitches last night.
The stars seem to align for the Brewers in this matchup, and I’m willing to pay a bit of a premium with Burnes on the mound.
*MLB(1u): Mets -1.5(+100) vs Rangers–6:10 PM CT
Mets SP Chris Bassitt was one of the most underrated pickups of this past offseason; I think he was the perfect addition for this Mets team. It hasn’t taken Bassitt long to adjust to his new ballpark; in 8 starts at Citi Field this season, Bassitt holds an impressive 3.16 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. The Rangers are underrated against left-handed pitching, but I really don’t like how they match up against established righties. Texas ranks 22nd in the league with a 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and they haven’t found any more success on the road. Bassitt is also familiar with this Rangers lineup from his time with the A’s; tonight’s projected starters for Texas are a combined 4 for 49 in their past matchups with Bassitt.
Rangers SP Glenn Otto has been hit-or-miss here in his rookie campaign(5.31 ERA, 1.51 WHIP), and he enters tonight in poor current form. Otto was shelled by the lowly Nationals in his last outing, allowing 6 ER in just 2 innings. While the Mets struggled with the bats earlier this week against the Astros, they have been incredibly consistent against right-handed pitching in their home ballpark all season(4th in wRC+). This lineup can win in more ways than one and don’t rely too heavily on the deep ball.
While the Rangers’ bullpen has been a pleasant surprise this season, I have my doubts as to how much longer that’s going to hold up. The Mets’ bullpen overall has been shaky, but I still trust their back-end arms in this matchup, particularly when I expect Bassitt to go deep in this game to begin with.
*MLB(1u): Astros F5 -0.5(-115) vs Angels–7:10 PM CT
Astros SP Cristian Javier is coming off a 7 inning/0 hit performance in Yankee Stadium, but that has little to do with this handicap(other than to show he’s in good current form). Javier has been dominant pitching at Minute Maid Park this season, entering tonight with a 1.95 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 11 K/9. While the Angels have hit righties pretty well at home, they rank just 23rd in wRC+ vs righties on the road this season. In general, this lineup has taken a massive step back over the last month after a fast start.
Angels SP Michael Lorenzen has found success at Angel Stadium, but outside of one outing in Oakland, he has been utterly brutal on the road. Overall, Lorenzen holds a 6.14 ERA and 1.47 WHIP away from home this season and is striking out less than 6 batters per 9 innings in this role. The Astros scratched across 4 runs in 3.1 innings at Minute Maid earlier this season, and I would expect a similar result tonight. After struggling in their home ballpark over the first two months, the Astros sat behind only the Blue Jays in wRC+ at home during the month of June. I’m hopeful the Astros will get Jeremy Peña back for tonight as well and continue to take in their friendly confines.
