I started off the second half with a 1-0, +1u day. Overall, my MLB record now sits at 108-100-3, +4.94u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays to kick off the weekend. To receive a text when I release my plays and write-ups, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1.5u): Brewers -1.5(-125) vs Rockies–7:10 PM CT
This is a mismatch in every sense of the word. This run-line should be priced at no less than -140. Getting 15 cents of (perceived) value and understanding how these teams match up, I feel comfortable making this a multi-unit play.
Brewers SP Corbin Burnes is the best pitcher in baseball by my estimation. The righty has backed up his 2021 NL Cy Young season by delivering a 2.14 ERA and 0.90 WHIP here in 2022. Burnes is allowing less than 6 hits per 9 innings while simultaneously striking out over 11 per 9 innings. Tonight, he gets one of the easiest matchups a righty could ask for. The Rockies are the prime example of why you have to focus on home/road splits. This is a really good offense at home, but on the road(specifically against RHP), they are among the worst offenses in the league. They hold a lowly 67 wRC+(29th in MLB) vs righties on the road this year and ranked 29th last year in this role.
Rockies SP Antonio Senzatela is the antithesis of Corbin Burnes. Senzatela is allowing an alarming 14 hits per 9 innings this season and holds a 1.80 WHIP in 60 innings. While Senzatela has actually managed to pitch pretty well at Coors Field, he has struggled mightily on the road. He holds a 1.83 WHIP on the road this season and held a 1.52 WHIP away from home last season(much bigger sample size). The Brewers’ offense leaves much to be desired when they step up in competition, but they have absolutely pummeled mediocre righties this season. Overall, this offense holds a solid 109 wRC+ vs righties at home this year. They should absolutely feast in this matchup.
If that wasn’t enough, consider the massive edge the Brewers hold in the later innings. Brad Boxberger/Devin Williams/Josh Hader very well might be the best 7-8-9 inning combo in all of baseball, and with the break behind them, all of these guys will be fresh tonight. On the other hand, Colorado holds the 4th worst bullpen WHIP in all of baseball.
*MLB(1u): Angels/Braves F5 UNDER 3.5(-105)–6:20 PM CT
Braves SP Charlie Morton got off to a slow start, but he has started to mirror his 1.04 WHIP season from a year ago here recently. Prior to the All Star Break, Morton enjoyed a 5-start stretch where allowed just 6 runs in 33.2 IP. I expect him to keep that rolling tonight against a Mike Trout-less Angels lineup. Since June 1st, the Angels rank just 28th in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching. Overall this season, the Angels rank just 25th in wRC+ vs righties away from their home ballpark. This is a pretty favorable matchup for Morton, especially considering tonight’s projected lineup is just 5-for-25 in total vs Morton.
Angels SP Shohei Ohtani has been nothing short of brilliant on the mound here in 2022. In total, the righty holds a 2.38 ERA and 0.99 WHIP entering tonight’s start. While a few blowup starts inflate his road numbers over the past 2 years, he is just as good away from home as he is in Angel Stadium. While the Braves have been good in this role, I do think their offense is more vulnerable in their tougher matchups than people realize. Ohtani has a very similar repertoire to Corbin Burnes and Yu Darvish, each of whom shut down the Braves in their first meetings this season. The Braves’ projected starting lineup is just 1-for-19 lifetime off of Ohtani, and I do think he holds down their lineup tonight.
I couldn’t talk anybody off of the full game Under, but the Angels’ bullpen inconsistency is enough for me to isolate the F5.
