Coming off a 1-1, -0.87u night, my record on the season sits at 109-101-3, +4.07u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to bounce back from a tough best bet loser last night. To receive a text when I release my plays and write-ups, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Pirates F5 ML(+100) vs Marlins–6:05 PM CT
People don’t seem realize how bad the Marlins offense is against lefties. Apparently, the oddsmakers don’t either. Away from home this year, the Marlins rank 28th in wRC+ vs left-handed pitching; this is simply not their role. Pirates SP Jose Quintana is going to be vulnerable in his tougher matchups, but this is not one of them. Quintana has pitched to a 3.02 ERA at PNC Park this year, and a FIP at 3.32 is impressive as well. I like how Quintana matches up with this Jazz Chisholm-less Marlins offense, a unit that has struggled mightily overall over the last few weeks.
Marlins SP Max Meyer has received a lot of hype here recently, and rightfully so; the 2020 1st round pick has great potential. With that said, this is just his 2nd big league start. Considering Meyer threw less than 170 innings in the minor leagues prior to his call up, I am simply not convinced he is ready for this level yet. He gave up 5 ER in his debut against the Phillies, and while this might be an easier matchup, this Pirates offense has improved over the course of the summer.
To price Meyer this highly without any sustained success at the big league level is a reach. I’ll play against that notion early in this game.
*MLB(1u): Braves -1.5(-105) vs Angels–6:20 PM CT
I have faded the Angels in 3 of their last 4 games, and not one of those called for a sweat. Without Mike Trout, this lineup is among the worst in the league. Don’t take my word for it; since June 1st, the Angels rank 28th in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching. Braves SP Kyle Wright has pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA here in 2022; he has limited home-runs while simultaneously producing twice as many ground-balls as fly-balls. I think he mows down the Angels tonight.
Angels SP Patrick Sandoval might hold a 3.00 ERA, but one glance at his 1.43 WHIP is enough to tell you that is not sustainable. In addition to allowing a hit per inning on the year, Sandoval is walking 4.5 per 9 innings away from home. We saw his luck start to run out last weekend against the Dodgers, and I think that carries over into tonight facing another very good lineup. The Braves rank 3rd in the league in wRC+ vs left-handed pitching and are a lineup I’m going to want my money on throughout the rest of the season.
The Braves will have all of their important bullpen arms available tonight by nature of winning by 7 last night. This unit ranks 5th in the league in bullpen WHIP and contains the type of arms I can trust in the later innings. While the Angels bullpen hasn’t been disastrous, they’ve still been far too inconsistent this summer for my liking.
