A 1-1 Wednesday brings my MLB record to 113-104-4, +5.17u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to take some momentum into the weekend. To receive a text when I release my plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Rockies F5 TT OVER 2.5(-120) vs Dodgers–7:40 PM CT
The Rockies are an offensive juggernaut at home(as we all know by now), and that is especially true when facing left-handed pitching. Their .894 home OPS vs lefties is far-and-away the best mark in the league.
Dodgers SP Tyler Anderson has been a pleasant surprise for the Dodgers this year, but he is still not a guy I’d be willing to trust in his tougher road matchups. We’ve seen him falter against the White Sox, Reds, and these same Rockies; at Coors Field earlier this year, Anderson allowed 10 hits and 4 ER in 6 innings. I also have my questions about how sustainable Anderson’s success is given he still carries a career 4.36 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Regardless, I do not mind going against him in this role.
*MLB(1u): Rangers TT UNDER 2.5(+115) @ Angels–8:38 PM CT
Virtually the only way I could back the Angels at this point is when Shohei Ohtani takes the hill. Ohtani held a sub-2.00 ERA at home last year, and I’d argue that he’s pitched even better this year(sub-1.00 WHIP at Angel Stadium). This is a pretty favorable matchup facing a Rangers offense that holds a measly 92 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching this season. While the Rangers got the bats hot before the All Star Break, they are on the heels of getting swept in Seattle and seem to have come back down to earth.
The Angels’ bullpen is not great, but they are also not a liability. I like how the righties coming out of the back end of this ‘pen match up with the Rangers and am willing to trust them in this role. 2.5 is certainly a low number, but Ohtani warrants it and then some. The +115 price made this too hard for me to pass up.
I would really caution against trusting the Angels’ offense in any way. I’d much rather isolate one of the SP’s in baseball rather than include one of the worst offenses in the league over the last 2 months.
*MLB(0.56u): Tigers F5 ML(+180) @ Blue Jays–6:07 PM CT
Seeing a price at greater than -200 for a Yusei Kikuchi start is pretty laughable. Kikuchi has been a train wreck for Toronto this year(5.12 ERA, 1.57 WHIP), and this is not some easy-breezy matchup as some people will incorrectly conclude. Facing the lefties on the road this year, the Tigers actually hold an above-average 101 wRC+. Additionally, Detroit just scored 20 runs in their 3 game set against a very good Padres pitching staff.
Tigers SP Tyler Alexander is an adequate back-of-the-rotation arm by my estimation. While he doesn’t have a large sample size this year, I was impressed that he recorded a 1.16 WHIP on the road last year in over 60 innings. The Blue Jays were held to just 1 run in last night’s game and rank just 17th in wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. I think Alexander keeps this lineup off-balance tonight.
While the Tigers do hold a slight bullpen advantage, this will remain a F5 sprinkle. I like how Alexander matches up with this lineup and don’t want to have to rely on the Tigers’ righties who don’t match up so well. With that said, this matchup absolutely warrants a sprinkle on the Tigers F5.
