I bring in a record of 115-107-4, +4.36u into this Sunday slate and will be rolling with 2 plays to cap off the weekend. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1.5u): Astros F5 TT OVER 2.5(+100) vs Mariners–1:10 PM CT
Mariners SP George Kirby is a talented young arm with a seemingly bright future, but he is not ready for this moment. Kirby threw just 117 innings in the minor leagues before being called up, and even though he has made 5 road starts, 3 of those came against bottom-feeder teams. We saw him yield 5 ER in Boston early this year as well as 3 R in 4 innings against the Mets at Citi Field. This is a “rivalry” game of sorts that I don’t see Kirby acclimating well to with his lack of experience.
The Astros have really asserted their dominance over the Mariners here over the past week, winning 5 of their 6 meetings. They have averaged just under 6 runs/game in those matchups and hold the 2nd best wRC+ in the league vs righties in their home ballpark. I think this offense makes another statement in today’s game.
*MLB(1u): Yankees TT OVER 5.5(+100) vs Royals–12:35 PM CT
Zack Greinke is rightfully a name that carries a lot of respect, but I’m not scared to play against him in this matchup. The 38-year old version of Greinke has stepped up horribly in his tougher road starts; he allowed 4 R in Toronto, 6 ER in Houston, 5 ER in Minnesota, and 5 ER in Colorado. Striking out merely 5 batters per 9 innings, I don’t like how Greinke’s recent fly ball trends play in a park like Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees haven’t been too profitable here in the month of July, but they seem to be entering one of their hot stretches after taking the first 3 games of this series. They scored 11 runs on Friday and 8 runs yesterday; overall, I love trusting a lineup that can get contributions from 1-to-9 in their order.
As a kicker, the Royals hold the worst bullpen numbers in baseball by a fairly wide margin. We saw the KC pen yield 8 runs in the 8th inning of Friday’s game and a run in each in the 6th and 7th inning yesterday.
