An 0-2 Monday brings me to 91-88-3, +1.03u on the MLB season. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to bounce back strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cubs/Brewers OVER 8.5(-120)–7:10 PM CT
Brewers SP Jason Alexander holds an incredibly deceiving 3.82 ERA; in 5 starts, the young righty is allowing well over 1 hit per inning while walking nearly 4 batters per 9 innings. His WHIP of 1.70 and past struggles in the minor leagues tell me he should not be a major league starter(he wouldn’t be if not for the plethora of injuries to Milwaukee’s staff).
Cubs SP Kyle Hendricks’ soft-throwing nature can throw some teams off, but it doesn’t to appear to have fazed the Brewers this season. In 3 starts vs Milwaukee this season, Hendricks has allowed 10 runs in just under 15 innings pitched. The Brewers have also seen righties good in their home ballpark this year(111 wRC+) and are a team I can trust in this role.
The Cubs bullpen ranks 21st in bullpen WHIP and is not a unit I want to trust when stepping up in competition(if at all). While Milwaukee has the much better bullpen, they will be without their 7th, 8th, and 9th inning arms today after each of those guys threw twice in the past 2 days. I really don’t like the rest of Milwaukee’s pen and don’t expect those guys to adjust to back-end roles very well; facing this same dilemma last week, Milwaukee allowed 8 runs to the lowly Pirates.
I don’t envision much of a threat from either pitching staff and see a higher-scoring game in Milwaukee tonight.
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays TT OVER 4.5(-125) @ Athletics–8:40 PM CT
The Blue Jays have lost 4 straight games, but this is not a team I expect to remain down-and-out for a long period of time. Toronto was the best offense in the league vs right-handed pitching in the month of June and will draw a very favorable matchup tonight. Athletics SP Adrian Martinez is in the major leagues out of necessity, NOT because he deserves to be. Martinez put up a 5.28 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in Triple-A last season and followed that up with a 5.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in AAA this year. In his last start in Seattle last week, Martinez yielded 9 baserunners in 4.2 innings, allowing 7 ER. This is an arm Toronto should absolutely crush.
As insurance, the A’s bullpen ranks 28th in bullpen WHIP and is notorious for blowing the rare A’s lead in the later innings. At anything -135 or below, this seems like a cheap price to back one of the league’s best offenses in a good matchup. Playing this at -125 was a no-brainer.
*MLB(1u): Dodgers -1.5(-115) vs Rockies–9:10 PM CT
Dodgers SP Mitch White might be a rookie, but he has carried himself quite well early in his career. He holds a sub-4.00 ERA up to this point and is allowing hard contact at under a 20% rate. This Rockies offense is TERRIBLE vs right-handed pitching away from their home ballpark; their 63 wRC+(100 is league average) has allowed us to net 6.73u by fading them in this very role. White might be young, but he’s more than equipped to hold this Rockies order down tonight.
Rockies SP German Marquez has simply had an atrocious 2022 campaign. After being one of the Rockies’ best arms over the past 5 years, Marquez holds an ugly 5.89 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 15 starts this season. This is a tough matchup for a multitude of reasons. Not only do the Dodgers rank 2nd in wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark, but this is also the second time they’ll face Marquez in a week’s span, a spot I believe greatly favors the opposing offense. When you factor in Marquez has had a WHIP north of 1.35 on the road over the last 2 seasons, I am not afraid to go against him in this spot.
There is also a major bullpen discrepancy in this matchup. The Dodgers rank 5th in bullpen WHIP this year, while the Rockies 24th in that same category.
