Coming off a 1-1 split, I sit at 92-89-3, +0.78u on the MLB season. With a pretty tough slate to work with, I’m sticking with a lone play for this afternoon and backing a guy that’s treated us well this year. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Brewers -1.5(-120) vs Cubs–1:10 PM CT
It’s Corbin Burnes Day in Milwaukee! While that may sound monotonous, we are now 6-1 backing Burnes on the season after an easy winner last weekend. Today, I see another huge mismatch on the mound. Burnes comes into tonight sporting a 2.36 ERA and 0.92 WHIP and is allowing just 6 hits per 9 innings while striking out over 11 per 9 innings. He’ll face a Cubs lineup that ranks below league average in wRC+ vs righties away from Wrigley Field. While the Cubbies have recently got a few key bats back off the IL and were able to put up 8 runs in last night’s game, how they fared off of Jason Alexander has zero bearing as to how they’ll fare off Burnes today. Burnes threw 7 innings of 2 run ball against the Cubs in Milwaukee earlier this season, and he’ll be relieved by arguably the best 7th-8th-9th inning trio in baseball(Boxberger, Williams, Hader).
Cubs SP Adrian Sampson is a bit of a journeyman; while the righty is 30 years old, he’s thrown just over 200 innings in the big leagues. During that time, he’s put up an ERA north of 5.00 and a WHIP at 1.39; this is not a guy I’m afraid to go against. This is also a pretty tough matchup considering how well the Brewers have seen righties in their home ballpark this season(109 wRC+). The Cubs’ bullpen has underperformed all season and carries an ugly 1.32 WHIP into this afternoon’s matchup.
I’ve had success trusting Burnes all year, and this is another spot where Milwaukee should win comfortably. I don’t mind laying a bit of a premium considering how successful this angle has been for me. I’d play this up to -130.
