A disappointing 0-1 Wednesday brings my MLB season record to 92-90-3, -0.42u. I’m back with 3 plays for tonight looking to bounce back and get ourselves back into the green on the season. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Orioles F5 ML(-110) vs Angels–6:05 PM CT
While the numbers might pair each of these SP’s as equals, I see a massive discrepancy. Orioles SP Jordan Lyles has thrown 1,240 innings in the big leagues, while Angels SP Chase Silseth has made just 5 career big league starts. Even more concerning, Silseth threw just 41 innings in the minor leagues before being called up to the big club this season; he was drafted just last year. Silseth is far too inexperienced to be counted on at the major league level, and this is a tougher matchup than you might think.
The Orioles have won 4 straight games, averaging 5.5 runs/game in that span. They got after righties Dane Dunning and Spencer Howard of the Rangers this week, and I think they are plenty capable of getting after Silseth today. The Angels won yesterday behind another gem from Shohei Ohtani, but prior to that, they had lost their previous 4 games and failed to put up more than 2 runs in any of those losses. On the road against right-handed pitching, the Angels rank a measly 25th in wRC+; the lack of depth in that lineup has really started to take its toll. Lyles has done an excellent job of limiting the long ball at Camden Yards this year, and I think he takes advantage of a weak Angels lineup in this one.
I price these bullpens pretty equally, but I do have concern over the Orioles’ back-end after they’ve been needed each of the past 4 days. As such, I will isolate the F5 and roll with the home team that’s sneakily played winning baseball over the last month.
*MLB(1u): Yankees F5 TT OVER 2.5(-115) @ Red Sox–6:10 PM CT
Red Sox SP Josh Winckowski has only made 5 career big league starts, and none have come in particularly tough spots. His 3 home starts this year have come against the Orioles(gave up 4 ER), Tigers, and Athletics. To say this is a step up in competition would be a massive understatement. While his ERA sits at 3.12, a 1.38 WHIP is a clear indicator that the 2022 version of Winckowski is not a sub-4.00 ERA starter in the big leagues. While the righty does produce a lot of ground balls, his hard contact rate of nearly 30% is another cause for concern in this matchup.
The Yankees also broke out last night with a 16 run performance in their matchup with the Pirates. While the offense wasn’t in great current form prior to last night, this is still a very easy offense to trust. On the road vs right-handed pitching this season, the Yankees rank 1st in wRC+ by a very comfortable margin.
I like the Yankees to carry over some momentum into today and take advantage of a young arm that has yet to face a top-of-the-line order at this level.
*MLB(1u): Rockies/Diamondbacks F5 OVER 5(-120)–8:40 PM CT
This is perhaps the worst SP matchup of the night. D-Backs SP Dallas Keuchel has been the worst pitcher in baseball this year, carrying a 8.27 ERA and 2.10 WHIP into tonight’s start. Keuchel is not only allowing 1.5 hits/innings, but uncharacteristically, he has developed an issue with control as well(5.66 BB/9). To make matters worse, this is the second time he’ll have to face the Rockies lineup over the last week. Colorado has always swung the bats well at home, but they’ve also handled lefties well away from their home ballpark this year(107 wRC+ in this role).
Rockies SP Austin Gomber might not have quite as bad of numbers as Keuchel, but he’s still among one of the worst SP’s in the league(6.53 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). You can’t blame his failure on having to pitch at Coors Field either; he held a 1.44 WHIP on the road last year and has an ERA over 6.00 on the road this season. This is also his 2nd straight start vs the same lineup after he faced the D-Backs last week. The D-Backs have quietly scored 6.5 runs/game over their last 9 games and have handled left-handed pitching well over that span.
Given how poor each bullpen is, I couldn’t talk anybody off of the full game Over. With that said, I feel best about isolating each of these SP’s and seeing them crumble early in this game.
