A 3-0, +3u Thursday brings me to 95-90-3, +2.58u on the MLB season. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to use last night’s momentum and start the weekend off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): White Sox F5 -0.5(-120) vs Tigers–7:10 PM CT
White Sox SP Lucas Giolito went into an uncharacteristic cold spell after a stint on the IL, but the former All Star has really rounded into form over his last 2 starts. He threw 6 innings of 2 run ball against the Angels before throwing 6 innings of 1 run ball in his last start in San Francisco. Giolito has always been a guy I can trust, and I love this matchup for him tonight. The Tigers actually got their bats going earlier this week against a slew of mediocre Guardians starters, but as expected, they looked completely overmatched against Dylan Cease last night. Detroit has been a historically bad offense this year; on the road vs righties, they hold a laughable 54 wRC+(100 is league average). I like Giolito to continue his current stretch and shut down this Tigers lineup tonight.
Tigers SP Tarik Skubal held a 2.15 ERA heading into June, but as I look back, he drew some really easy matchups in the first two months of the season. As the summer has gone on, Skubal has regressed mightily, allowing at least 3 ER in his last 6 starts and allowing 5 or more ER in 3 of those 6 starts. More than that, this is a terrible matchup for Skubal. While the White Sox have been a disappointing team overall this season, the one thing that has remained steady about them is their ability to mash left-handed pitching. The White Sox rank 1st in wRC+ vs left-handed pitching this season, and that is a trend that has remained true for years now. Skubal allowed 4 ER in 4 innings pitched vs the White Sox earlier this season; I’d expect a similar performance in tonight’s game.
*MLB(1u): Diamondbacks F5 -0.5(-120) vs Rockies–8:40 PM CT
Diamondbacks SP Zac Gallen seems to have put it all together here in 2022. The righty holds a 3.40 ERA and 1.05 WHIP heading into tonight’s start, and that WHIP drops to 0.94 in his home ballpark. While he does face the Rockies for the second time in a week’s span, Gallen has experience in this role. While he faltered against the Padres the last time he found himself in this spot, he delivered repeat quality performances in his second straight start vs both the Cubs and Mets earlier this season. Additionally, facing the Rockies in Coors Field is completely incomparable to facing them on the road. The Rockies stink vs righties on the road, carrying a 65 wRC+(29th in MLB) into tonight’s game.
Rockies SP Chad Kuhl has adapted well to pitching at Coors Field, but he has been an utter train wreck on the road. While a 4.59 ERA on the road might not do that justice, consider his measly 1.59 WHIP and 5 BB/9 away from Coors Field this season. While the D-Backs don’t have great overall numbers offensively this season, they enter this game in pretty solid current form. Over their last 10 games, Arizona has averaged over 6 runs/game. Kuhl is the perfect example of why you can’t judge pitchers by their overall numbers; he is a completely different pitcher on the road than he is at Coors Field.
*MLB(0.77u): Mets -1.5(+130) vs Marlins–6:10 PM CT
Mets SP Chris Bassitt has adjusted nicely to pitching at Citi Field this season. In 8 home starts this year, Bassitt holds an impressive 3.16 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While the Marlins have seen righties well at home this season, they rank 23rd in wRC+ vs righties away from their home ballpark. More importantly, the Marlins are without 2 of their best bats in Jazz Chisholm and Jorge Soler. This is not a team that can afford to lose their centerpieces, and as you might expect, Miami has scored less than 2 runs/game this week in the absence of those guys.
Marlins SP Pablo Lopez is an All Star caliber arm, but he has been far better at home over the last two seasons. He held an ERA north of 4.00 on the road last season, and his ERA skyrockets over a full point more on the road this year(WHIP jumps up 0.17 points as well). This Mets lineup also presents a tough matchup, as they rank 4th in wRC+ vs righties at home this season. Aside from one clunker performance in Cincinnati, the Mets have put up 7, 8, and 10 runs this week. This is a lineup I can trust because they do a lot of little things right and don’t rely too much on the long ball to produce runs. Lopez gave up 6 ER a few weeks ago at Citi Field, which is a clear indicator he doesn’t match up well with this opposing offense.
The Mets also have a pretty clear bullpen advantage in this game. By nature of winning by 10 runs last night, every back-end piece will be fresh and ready to go for New York tonight. Miami’s bullpen, on the other hand, has been a major disappointment this year, ranking 21st in bullpen WHIP entering tonight’s matchup.
