I started out the weekend with a disappointing 1-2, -0.97u night(thanks Zac Gallen). Overall, my MLB record sits at 96-92-3, +1.61u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for today looking to take some momentum into Sunday. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Royals TT UNDER 3.5(+105) vs Guardians–3:10 PM CT
Guardians SP Triston McKenzie’s 3.71 ERA is incredibly deceiving. The young righty holds a sub-1.00 WHIP on the season and is allowing just 6.6 hits/9 innings; his lone struggle has been allowing the long ball. Fortunately, the Royals rank just 24th in home runs this season and hold an unimpressive 80 wRC+(28th in MLB) at home vs right-handed pitching. McKenzie is also coming off a dominant start against the Yankees where he threw 7 scoreless innings and allowed just 2 baserunners. I really like this matchup for McKenzie.
Just a few weeks ago, the Guardians held the best bullpen WHIP in baseball. Since then, things have plummeted for this unit. With that being said, I’m not going to let a short-term slump keep me off trusting a unit that has performed well this season. Cleveland had Thursday off and needed just 2 arms last night; considering I expect McKenzie to go AT LEAST 6 innings, I feel comfortable making this a full game play and trusting the talented arms in the back end of the Guardians’ bullpen.
*MLB(1u): Yankees/Red Sox F5 OVER 5(-110)–8:40 PM CT
The Red Sox have run out a slew of overmatched arms this week against the Yankees, and tonight is going to be no different. Red Sox SP Kutter Crawford has horrible numbers early in his big league career(6.33 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) and now has to face the best offense in baseball. Don’t take my word for it; the Yankees rank 1st in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching on the road this season. They scored 6 runs on Thursday and 12 runs last night facing Triple-A caliber arms, and I don’t expect tonight to be any different. While Crawford actually looked good in his last start vs Tampa Bay, his struggles at both the Triple-A and MLB level over the last two seasons give me no confidence he’ll step up well in this matchup.
Yankees SP Jordan Montgomery has been a reliable arm for New York this year, but this is simply not a good matchup. While the Red Sox have had their struggles going up against righties in their home ballpark, they hold a 140 wRC+ vs lefties at Fenway Park, good for 3rd in all of MLB. Boston racked 8 hits off of Nestor Cortes last night and chased him before he was able to get through 4 innings. Montgomery allowed 3 runs in 3.1 innings to the Sox earlier this season, and he has consistently been more vulnerable on the road throughout his career.
