I’m rolling with 4 plays to kick off the weekend. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Rays SERIES(-120) @ Twins
This is my first series play of the season, but I have talked for weeks about how I’ll be looking to play against the Twins here in the month of June. While the Twins hold a 33-26 record, consider who they played in the month of May: Orioles, Athletics(2 series), Guardians, Royals(2 series), and Tigers(2 series). That is an unbelievably easy schedule, but things will get equally as tough here in the month of June. The Twins just lost 2 out of 3 to the Yankees in rather loud fashion and will host one of the best pitching staffs in the league this weekend. Tonight’s pitching matchup is fairly even, although I have my doubts that Twins SP Devin Smeltzer will be able to sustain a high level of success. The Rays will undoubtably have the pitching advantage in Sunday’s game(Springs vs rookie Cole Sands), and the Twins will likely have to start a minor league caliber arm in tomorrow’s game. When you factor in significant bullpen advantage for Tampa as well as the Rays’ tendency to swing the bats better on the road, I feel like this is a good spot and price to go against the Twins.
*MLB(1u): Athletics TT UNDER 3.5(-125) @ Guardians–6:10 PM CT
Guardians SP Triston McKenzie has been absolutely dominant this season, having allowed just 34 hits in 58 innings pitched. His ERA sits at 3.10 for the simple reason that he has allowed quite a few home runs, but he trails only Justin Verlander with an amazing 0.86 WHIP. The Athletics are the worst lineup in the league and shouldn’t be considered a threat against any quality right-handed pitcher. Additionally, they have hit just 35 long balls on the year(2nd fewest in the league), meaning they likely won’t be able to take advantage of McKenzie’s weak spot. While the Guardians have used the back-end of their ‘pen each of the past 2 days, this is a deep unit that still leads the league in bullpen WHIP. McKenzie has also gone at least 7 innings in each of his past 4 starts, which should mean the Guardians won’t have to rely on some of their weaker middle-relief arms. You could make a case for playing this at 2.5, so getting a full extra run at a fairly reasonable price was too good for me to pass up.
*MLB(1u): Padres -1.5(-115) vs Rockies–8:40 PM CT
Padres SP Joe Musgrove is having a Cy Young caliber start to this 2022 campaign. Through 10 starts, the righty holds a brilliant 1.64 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, and since joining the Padres last season, Musgrove has seen little resistance when pitching at Petco Park. The Rockies might swing the bats well at home, but this is one of the worst road offenses in the league against right-handed pitching(27th in OPS). While the Rockies did fare well against Giants SP Logan Webb yesterday, their historical road numbers are too stark for me to overlook. The Padres also have a top 10 bullpen in the league and will be fresh coming off an off day. Rockies SP Chad Kuhl seems to have adjusted to the conditions of Coors Field, but through 6 road starts this year, the righty holds an ugly 1.39 WHIP. The Padres offense was carried by Manny Machado for much of this season but erupted for 25 runs in their 3 game series against the Mets earlier this week. They managed to jump all over quality righties Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt, so getting after Kuhl seems like an attainable goal. The Rockies bullpen received a lot of usage in their series against the Giants but aren’t a good unit even when they’re fresh(28th in bullpen WHIP). I love playing against the Rockies on the road, and with Musgrove’s dominance combined with the Padres’ current form offensively, I deem this a good spot to do so.
*MLB(0.69u): Phillies -1.5(+145) vs Diamondbacks–6:05 PM CT
The Phillies are the hottest team in baseball, coming into tonight’s game having won their last 7. They’ll face a really good arm in Zack Gallen tonight, but Gallen has shown signs of regression in his last few starts. He allowed 6 runs to a measly Royals lineup a few weeks ago, and he’s allowed 17 baserunners across his last 2 starts(11.2 IP). If the Phillies can beat Corbin Burnes the way they did yesterday, they can certainly get after Gallen in this one. Phillies SP Kyle Gibson has had his ups and downs this year, but he’s fared better in his home ballpark than I would’ve expected(3.48 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). The Diamondbacks scored 12 runs in the last 2 games of their series against the Reds, but much of that came against the atrocious Reds bullpen and lefty Mike Minor, neither of which really correlate to this matchup. When you’re hot, you’re hot; winning is contagious. I couldn’t justify laying the juice on the Phillies ML, but I will absolutely sprinkle on the run line at this price.
