I endured a tough night to start the week but remain +10.34u over the last 36 days. With a full slate to work with, I’m rolling with 4 plays for tonight looking to bounce back. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Marlins/Phillies F5 UNDER 4.5(-115)–6:05 PM CT
Phillies SP Zach Eflin might have his struggles on the road, but the righty is great in his home ballpark. He held an ERA greater than 2 runs less at home last year and holds a 1.16 ERA/0.77 WHIP at home here in 2022. The Marlins were gifted 6 unearned runs in their weekend series in Houston, which can greatly alter how you evaluate their current form. They were overmatched by Aaron Nola last night and are not an offense I expect anything from when stepping up in competition. On the other side, however, I’m expecting Marlins SP Trevor Rogers to round into form and enjoy a great summer on the mound. Rogers held a sub-3.00 ERA in 25 starts last season but has drawn some tough matchups(ATL 3x, @SD, @COL) early in 2022. Still, Rogers is a power lefty arm that seems to be reeling in his command. The Phillies are on fire over the last 2 weeks, but the offense seems to be coming back down to earth; they have scored just 8 runs over their last 3 games. The Phillies have also failed to figure out left-handed pitching in their home ballpark despite facing them more often than any other team in baseball. I like each of these SP’s in this matchup and think this number should be set at 4. I’d be frightened to play a Phillies Under a week ago, but after seeing them cool off a bit, I like this one to stay under the F5 total.
*MLB(1u): Mets F5 -0.5(-110) vs Brewers–6:10 PM CT
Mets SP Chris Bassitt struggled in each of his 2 West Coast starts in San Diego and Los Angeles, but this is a guy I think will have a great year pitching in Citi Field. He held a 1.06 WHIP in 2021 and has the moxy it takes to succeed in New York. He’ll get a favorable matchup facing off against a Brewers team that is just 2-9 here in the month of June. While the Brewers have crushed vulnerable right-handed pitching, this is another team I have no expectations for when stepping up in competition. Brewers SP Adrian Houser’s sub-4.00 ERA is not sustainable considering he holds an ugly 1.40 WHIP. In addition, Houser has fared considerably worse on the road throughout his career as a Brewer. The Mets offense has been steady all season, likely because they don’t depend too heavily on the home run ball to produce runs. When you account for Houser’s issues with walks, this is exactly the type of arm the Mets have taken advantage of repeatedly this season. I expect a bounce back start from Bassitt and for the Mets to take a lead into the later innings.
*MLB(1u): Padres/Cubs F5 UNDER 5.5(-105)–7:05 PM CT
I don’t think this pitching matchup warrants such a high total to begin with, and when you consider how poor of current form each offense is in, it makes this total even more crazy. I can understand why the oddsmakers don’t like Kyle Hendricks; after 7 really solid seasons from 2014-2020, Hendricks has regressed over the past 2 years. However, it is worth noting that Hendricks was pitching through an injury last month and has taken the last 12 days to rest and regroup. In any case, the Padres offense is just not good against right-handed pitching(26th in OPS vs righties). Over their last 4 games, the Padres have scored just 10 runs despite facing the measly Rockies in 3 of those matchups. I expect Hendricks to look fresh and like his old self in this one. On the other side, Padres SP Sean Manaea has slowly developed into one of the more consistent pitchers across the league. Both his ERA and FIP have settled in the 3.50-3.60 range in the last 2 seasons, and he’s been just as steady on the road as he is at home. This Cubs offense has scored just 6 runs over their last 4 games and have not figured out lefties up to this point in the season; it’s hard for me to see Manaea giving up more than 2 runs in this spot. While there is a slight wind blowing out tonight, I don’t think that is enough to cure what both of these offenses are going through at the moment. I feel good enough about this pitching matchup to play this one under the F5 total.
*MLB(1u): Giants -1.5(-120) vs Royals–8:45 PM CT
Giants SP Logan Webb has not been as dominant as he was in 2021, but holding a sub-2.00 ERA in your home ballpark was going to be hard to repeat. I still believe this is his role, and he’ll get one of the easier matchups you can ask for tonight. While the Royals offense went on a recent little run, they came back down to earth last night after getting shut down by Alex Wood. Webb has yet to allow a home run at Oracle Park this season; if the Giants defense can not make 3 errors in a row like they did in Webb’s last start(still not over it), then I think Webb has a pretty good chance of controlling this game. Royals SP Kris Bubic very well may be the worst SP in the big leagues at the moment. Bubic holds an atrocious 9.13 ERA and 2.03 WHIP, which makes sense considering he’s walking over 6 batters per 9 innings and giving up 2 HR/9. He has also yet to go more than 5 innings in a start, which spells trouble considering the Royals have far and away the worst bullpen in the league right now. One of the big improvements the Giants have made this season is hitting LHP in their home ballpark. While they are still without a few key lefty bats, those don’t figure to be as big of a burden when facing a lefty. I think this is a total mismatch across the board, and it helps to know that the Giants have won 4 straight. Even at -120, I see some value on the Giants RL tonight.
