Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs 2:20 PM ET
It doesn’t get much better and much more All-American than afternoon baseball at Wrigley Field. The Braves come in with a day off after completing the sweep of the Nationals and continuing their 14 game winning streak. The Cubs come in to this one after a 6-4 loss and currently riding a 10 game losing streak. With that being said, streaks are made to be broken, so I won’t be on a side here in today’s game.
The Braves come in having scored an average of 9 runs in their past 3 games. They are averaging 4.7 runs per game on the road, and 4.81 runs per game overall this season. The Cubs have averaged 4.67 runs per game in their last 3 games. They’re averaging 4.57 runs per game at home and 4.25 runs per game overall.
Both pitchers are coming into this game struggling. Charlie Morton has given up 4 runs or more in his last 4 starts. Keegan Thompson has given up 3 or more runs in his last 3 starts.
Let’s start with Charlie Morton. His road stats this year have been abysmal. His average road start has been 5 1/3 innings per game, and giving up an average of 4.2 runs per game. He has a 6.89 road ERA, 5.63 FIP, 4.76 xFIP, .397 wOBA, .355 BABIP, and is giving up 1.72 home runs per 9 innings pitched. Morton holds a 1-3 record in 5 road starts.
Keegan Thompson comes into this game with pretty good home stats. On the surface a 1.80 home ERA, .358 wOBA, 2.84 FIP, 3.61 xFIP, and .257 BABIP are actually good, really good in fact. When we take a closer look though at his home stats as a starter that’s where the wheels start to fall off. As a starter at home he’s sporting a 6.26 ERA, 6.44 FIP, 5.51 xFIP, .310 BABIP, and .418 wOBA.
There are a couple trends that we like here to support these plays as well. The Cubs are 13-8-2 to the over as a home dog and 27-22-2 to the over on no rest. The Braves are 31-24-2 to the over in league games this year.
One key piece missing for the Braves though is Ozzie Albies. He’s out about 2 months with a broken foot. There hasn’t been too much fall off, especially against lower tier teams, that has been noticeable so far. We’ll have to see how this plays out.
With all of that being said, here’s what I’m playing on today’s game:
F5 O4.5 -105 1U
FG O8.5 -110 1.5U
Best of luck if you tail and let’s have some fun this afternoon!
