I remain +10.69u over the last 6 weeks and am rolling with 3 plays to get the new week started. To receive a text when I release my plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Giants/Braves F5 UNDER 4(+105)–6:20 PM CT
The Braves had won 14 straight ballgames entering this past weekend but seem to have cooled off after dropping 2 of 3 to the lowly Cubs in Chicago. Specifically, the bats seemed to come back down to earth; the Braves managed to score just 9 runs in the 3 game set and were shut out on Friday. Throughout the season, the Braves have not started out their homestands hot with the bats. Coming off a road trip of 2 series or more this season, the Braves have scored just 3 runs in each of the first games of their following homestand. Giants SP Logan Webb is coming off his best start of the season where he threw 7 shutout innings and struck out 9 Royals bats. While Webb is an easy back in his home ballpark, he holds a solid 1.08 WHIP on the road this season and is a guy I’ve seen progress throughout the season after a slow start. On the other side of things, this seems to be a good spot for Braves SP Max Fried as well. Fried has blossomed into a sub-3.00 ERA guy over the past 3 seasons, and the one constant has been his consistency pitching at home. While the Giants can certainly get after right-handed pitching, going against lefties is simply not their best role. In addition, if you take out an outlier 15 run performance on June 3rd, San Fran is averaging just 3.5 runs/game in the month of June. I like this starting pitching matchup a lot, especially considering each offense has struggled in this particular role. F5 UNDER is the play for me.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT UNDER 3.5(-130) @ Brewers–7:10 PM CT
*MLB(0.74u): Brewers -1.5(+135) vs Cardinals–7:10 PM CT
It’s Corbin Burnes day in Milwaukee! In my opinion, the 2021 NL Cy Young Winner is still the best pitcher in baseball, and he’ll get a relatively favorable matchup in this one. The Cardinals have mashed left-handed pitching over the course of the season, but against righties, this is a very mediocre lineup. Burnes twirled 7 shutout innings in St. Louis earlier this season and holds an impressive 0.95 WHIP this year. Burnes’ only crutch has been allowing the deep ball, but given he allowed less than 0.4 HR/9 each of the past 2 seasons, I expect to see that HR number plummet throughout the season. The Cardinals were able to take advantage of some shotty bullpen arms in the Red Sox ‘pen over the weekend, but I don’t expect them to be afforded the same luxury in this one. Josh Hader is coming off the paternity list and will be available for Milwaukee, and Devon Williams and Brad Boxberger are trustworthy arms as well. However, Burnes has gone 7 full innings five separate times this year, and I think he’ll have every opportunity to go deep in this game.
Cardinals SP Miles Mikolas almost through a no-hitter in his last start against the Pirates, but the Brewers present him a much tougher matchup. Milwaukee has won 4 of their last 5 and is scoring over 6 runs/game in that span; on the year, the Brewers have been a top 10 offense vs righties in their home ballpark. Mikolas has been great for St Louis this year, but with a FIP a full run above his ERA, I’m not expecting him to be a sub-3.00 ERA guy for much longer. The Cardinals’ bullpen is also incredibly inconsistent and has not earned my trust in some of these tougher matchups. Given Burnes is on the hill and the Brewers are in great current form, I think +135 on the run-line is generous. I’ll sprinkle on that to hopefully win us a full unit.
