I started the week off with a strong 3-0, +3.05u night and now find myself +13.74u over the last 43 days. I’m rolling with 4 plays for tonight with a loaded slate at our disposal. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Phillies F5 ML(+100) @ Rangers–7:05 PM CT
Rangers SP Martin Perez held a sub-2.00 ERA at one point earlier this month, but unsurprisingly, the lefty has regressed mightily over his last 2 starts. He surrendered 12 hits and 6 runs to the White Sox a few weekends ago and then allowed an unimpressive 8 hits to a historically bad Tigers lineup his last time out. Considering Perez holds a 4.53 career ERA across 11 MLB seasons, I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to fall hard after a fast start to the season. The Phillies present Perez a very tough matchup; Philly leads the league in OPS on the road vs left-handed pitching(.906 OPS). Prior this season, Perez’s lowest HR/9 total since 2017 sat at 1.12 HR/9; after limiting the long ball for much of the season, he has allowed a homer in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Phillies are a top 5 slugging team in the league, and given how well they’ve fared in this spot, I’d expect them to do damage tonight. Phillies SP Kyle Gibson made himself a ton of money from his success as a Ranger last year, specifically because of how well he pitched in this ballpark. The Rangers offense has struggled against righties all year, coming into tonight ranked 26th in OPS vs RHP. Considering Gibson is coming off his best start start of the season(8 IP, 1 ER vs Marlins), I’d expect him to continue his success tonight in a ballpark he’s pitched great in. I don’t trust the Phillies’ bullpen enough to make this a full game wager, but I like this matchup for them early in the game.
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays ML(-130) @ White Sox–7:10 PM CT
White Sox SP Dylan Cease might hold a sub-3.00 ERA, but he has gotten absolutely rocked in his tougher matchups this season. In his 3 starts against the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox(all at home), Cease has allowed a combined 20 runs. The Blue Jays offense seems to be rounding into form after a 10-run output against the Yankees on Sunday and a 7-run performance against these White Sox yesterday. Cease is going to rack up K’s regardless of who he’s facing, but he’s proven to fold against top-of-the-line offenses this season. Blue Jays SP Kevin Gausman has struggled at times over his past 4 starts, but I think tonight presents a tremendous “buy low” opportunity. While his ERA sits at 3.21, Gausman’s FIP(expected ERA) comes in at an astonishingly low 1.74. When you consider he’s allowing just 1.36 BB/9 and 0.25 HR/9 while striking out over a batter per inning, it’s not hard to see why Gausman is an easy back. The White Sox got after a familiar arm in Jose Berrios last night, but this is a team that has struggled to figure out righties all season(29th in OPS vs righties at home). Getting Tim Anderson back helps their cause, but this is still a depleted lineup without 3-4 everyday players. While you might get a better price on playing the Blue Jays F5 -0.5, fading the White Sox bullpen is too good for me to pass up. The White Sox are currently without their closer Liam Hendriks as well as set-up man Aaron Bummer; we saw their two only viable arms(Graveman and Kelly) throw last night. This has been a bottom 10 bullpen in the league this year, and I think they enter this matchup in an even weaker form than that might suggest. I think the Blue Jays bounce back and take care of business tonight.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals F5 -0.5(-105) @ Brewers–7:10 PM CT
The Brewers starting pitching has been completely depleted; with Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Aaron Ashby all on the IL, Craig Counsell has to turn to Chi Chi Gonzalez to make tonight’s start. Gonzalez has proven time and again he is undeserving of a spot in a major league rotation; he held a 6.46 ERA and 1.52 WHIP across 18 starts last season and has been shelled in each of his 2 starts this season. The Cardinals were shut out last night by Corbin Burnes, but I think that speaks much more to Burnes’ greatness than the Cardinals’ inadequacies offensively. Don’t take my word for it: After getting shut out by Burnes just last month, the Cardinals responded with 6 runs and a win the next day against the Padres. St Louis will have plenty of chances to put this game away early. Cardinals SP Jack Flaherty looked rusty in his season debut last week, but I’m expecting a much better result this time out. Flaherty delivered 0 run performances in his 2nd start of the season in 2021 and 2019, and he’s shown enough for me to believe he has the stuff to beat this Milwaukee lineup. The Brewers offense can certainly take advantage of mediocre-below average pitching, but I do not trust them when stepping up in competition. This line is very telling already, but I don’t think it’s adjusted enough for how much of a pitching mismatch this really is. There’s no reason to include bullpens in this play; let’s isolate the matchup we feel best about.
*MLB(0.69u): Giants F5 ML(+145) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT
Braves SP Spencer Strider was a menace out of the bullpen earlier this season, but I do not think he will be as dominant as a SP as time goes on. His 4 starts up to this point have come against the D-Backs, Rockies, Pirates, and Nationals, so the verdict is still out on how he stacks up against stiffer competition as a starter. Additionally, the Giants fare better against right-handed pitching and have gotten many of their lefty bats(save LaMonte Wade) back healthy over the past couple of weeks. Considering Strider is also walking 4.3 batters per 9 innings, I don’t think he’s as stable of a SP as this line prices him as. Giants SP Anthony DeSclafani has been hurt for much of the season, but this line is downright a slap in the face considering he accumulated a 3.17 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 31 starts last year. The Braves are on the heels of a 14 game winning streak but have cooled off considerably in recent days, scoring just 11 runs across their last 4 games. The Braves hold a sizable bullpen advantage, which will keep this a F5 play. Strider’s upside paired with DeSclafani not having his feet wet this season keeps this a sprinkle, but there is simply too much value on the Giants for me to pass up.
