A 1-3 Tuesday is not what we were looking for, but I still remain +11.75u in MLB over the last 44 days. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to bounce back strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Marlins -1.5(+115) vs Rockies–5:40 PM CT
Marlins SP Pablo Lopez takes the hill for Miami in a role he’s excelled in each of the past two seasons. Lopez held an impressive 2.34 ERA at Marlins Park in 2021, and he’s followed that up by delivering a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home this season. In addition to this being his best role, Lopez will also get a very favorable matchup. The Rockies can swing it in their home ballpark, but they struggle mightily on the road, especially against right-handed pitching. The Rockies currently rank 29th in OPS vs righties on the road with a brutal .580 OPS to their name, and they were 29th in this role last year as well. Rockies SP Chad Kuhl has adjusted nicely to pitching in Coors Field, but he has been a “play against” pitcher when he’s on the road dating back to his time in Pittsburgh. On the road this season, Kuhl holds an ugly 1.58 WHIP and is also walking over 5 batters per 9 innings. While this might come as a surprise, the Marlins actually rank 1st in OPS vs right-handed pitching in their home ballpark and are coming off a 9 run performance from a night ago. While I don’t expect that to continue over the rest of this season, they certainly have the clear advantage in today’s game. The Marlins bullpen has been a bit disappointing this year, but luckily Colorado’s bullpen has been even worse; in fact, the Rockies bullpen has actually performed worse on the road than they have in their home ballpark. The stars align for a comfortable Marlins victory, with the main point being that Lopez is a top-of-the-line arm across the league here in 2022. I’m +5.58u fading the Rockies on the road this season, and we’ll look to add to that tonight.
*MLB(1u): Twins TT UNDER 4.5(-120) vs Guardians–6:40 PM CT
Guardians SP Triston McKenzie has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He ranks 7th in WHIP and now holds a sub-3.00 ERA to his name. Most impressive of all, McKenzie is allowing less than 6 hits/9 innings while allowing less than 2.5 walks/9 innings. The only knock on McKenzie has been his knack for giving up long balls, which is really the only damage he has allowed. Consider his last start against these same Twins back on May 15th: McKenzie went 7 strong innings and allowed just 3 hits, but two of them happened to be solo home runs. I would make the argument that McKenzie has actually been more dominant than his numbers illustrate(although his FIP would contradict that given how much weight it puts on HR/9). Not only has McKenzie been dominant, but the Guardians hold the best bullpen numbers across the board in MLB(sub-3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). While they did have to dig deep into that bullpen last night, Monday was an off day for Cleveland; because no key reliever threw more than 20 pitches, every valuable arm should be available for the Guardians tonight. I’ve long said that I think Minnesota is the most overvalued team in baseball and that, as they start to play stiffer competition in the month of June, this team will regress considerably. I’d feel good about the arms the Guardians will roll out there against almost any offense, so I’m not afraid to go against the Twins when they’re facing a top-of-the-line staff.
