Coming off a 1-1, +0.31u Thursday, I find myself +12.01u over the last 46 days. I’m rolling with 3 plays tonight looking to start the weekend off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Dodgers TT OVER 4.5(-115) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT
After beginning the month by getting swept at home by the Pirates, the Dodgers’ offense remained in shaky form for the next few weeks. However, you’re not going to keep a lineup with that much depth and talent down for too long. Not surprisingly, the Dodgers swept the Reds in Cincinnati, and they did so by putting up 28 runs in the 3 game set. That is even more impressive considering they faced some talented arms in Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Hunter Greene. Tonight, the Dodgers find themselves in position to take advantage of another young righty. Braves SP Ian Anderson had a very solid rookie season a year ago, but he has really taken a step back here in 2022. Through 13 starts, the righty holds an ugly 1.39 WHIP and is walking over 4 batters per 9 innings. In addition, Anderson has allowed 1.5 HR/9 at Truist Park this season. While the Braves have a top 10 bullpen in baseball, that unit is not fresh after needing their back-end arms each of the past 4 days in their tightly-contested series against the Giants. While availability might not be an issue tonight, this unit is not in peak form entering perhaps their toughest matchup of the season. I think the Dodgers’ eruption in Cincinnati this week is a sign of what’s to come as we head towards the All Star Break. I’ll trust the Dodgers to keep the bats hot tonight.
*MLB(1u): Nationals TT UNDER 3.5(+100) @ Rangers–7:05 PM CT
Rangers SP Dane Dunning has had his fair share of struggles on the road, but he’s adjusted nicely to pitching at Globe Life Field. Dunning held an impressive 3.09 ERA at home last year and has followed that up with a 3.02 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home this year. Dunning is a heavy-sinker arm that produces a ton of ground balls; while the Nationals have a high contact rate, they rank just 25th in home runs and 21st in runs this season. While their road numbers this year might look promising, a few outlier performances in hitter-friendly ballparks pad those numbers quite a bit. The Nats were shutout in Baltimore on Wednesday and now enter an even tougher hitting environment tonight. While I’ve been skeptical of the Rangers bullpen this year, they actually rank 12th in bullpen WHIP, better than the Red Sox, Mets, and Cardinals. I also expect Dunning to go pretty deep in this game, so we’ll likely avoid having to trust any of the Rangers’ lesser arms in this one. I can understand the oddsmakers not wanting to go out on a limb with Dunning, but you can make a pretty good argument that this number should be 2.5. When you factor in that we’re getting 1:1 odds, this was too good for me to pass up.
*MLB(1u): Tigers/Diamondbacks F5 UNDER 4.5(-110)–8:40 PM CT
Diamondbacks SP Merrill Kelly has morphed into a pretty reliable arm in the Arizona rotation. He holds a sub-3.50 ERA on the season and is allowing just 0.5 HR/9. Kelly’s always been steady in his home ballpark, and he’ll get the easiest matchup you could hope for tonight. The Tigers rank dead last in OPS vs righties on the road(.534 OPS) and have had a historically bad season at the plate. Despite getting some favorable matchups in hitter-friendly Fenway Park earlier this week, the Tigers racked up just 8 runs in that 3 game set. While the offense has made it impossible for Detroit to hold a good record, the pitching has been the lone bright spot for the Tigers this year. Tigers SP Rony Garcia has pitched much better than his 4.97 ERA would indicate; he holds an impressive 1.05 WHIP on the season and has delivered in his toughest matchups this season(5 IP, 2 ER at Yankee Stadium). The D-Backs can have their moments offensively, but they rank just 26th in OPS at home vs righties and are not in good current form. Considering each of these SP’s have had plenty of success this year combined with the inadequacies of each offense, I think this number should be at 4. We’ll hope to take advantage tonight.
