I started the week with a 1-0 Monday and will look to add on with 2 more winners tonight. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays F5 -0.5(+100) vs Red Sox–6:07 PM CT
Michael Wacha vs Ross Stripling might look like a pretty even pitching matchup, but I believe only Stripling’s early season success is sustainable. Stripling struggled as a Blue Jay last year because he got away from what worked; after delivering 4 straight sub-4.00 ERA seasons as a ground-ball pitcher, Stripling uncharacteristically delivered a 0.91 GB/FB rate last season and got crushed for it. His 2.36 GB/FB rate in 2022 is the highest of his career, and as such, he’s become a staple in the Toronto rotation, carrying a 3.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP into tonight’s start. The Red Sox looked lost at the plate against Kevin Gausman last night and were shut down by Stripling in Toronto earlier this season. Red Sox SP Michael Wacha has drawn some favorable matchups as of late, but I think he will be one of the biggest disappointments in the second half of the season. Wacha is striking out just 6.6 batters per 9 innings but is being bailed out by leaving 85% of runners on base; this is not sustainable over time(unless you’re Robbie Ray in 2021, but how is that working out for him now?). His FIP is nearly 2 points higher than his ERA, a strong indicator that Wacha will regress over time. This is also a brutal matchup facing a Blue Jays offense that ranks 3rd in OPS and 6th in wRC+ in their home ballpark this season. The Blue Jays put up 9 runs and looked comfortable at the plate last night; I think they’ll dig in confidently against Wacha tonight. I see an edge for Toronto early in this game.
*MLB(1u): Brewers F5 ML(-110) @ Rays–6:10 PM CT
Rays SP Shane Baz has the potential to be an All-Star caliber arm in the coming years, but he is being WAY overpriced for an arm that has accumulated just 26.1 innings in the big leagues. Baz has looked great in both the minor and major leagues this season, but I think it’s premature to use that small of a sample to price him as a top-of-the-line pitcher. The Brewers offense can be underwhelming at times, but they’ve found a knack taking advantage of vulnerable young arms. Look no further than their numbers against Reds SP Hunter Greene this year. Additionally, the Brewers swung the bats very well in their series win over the Blue Jays this past weekend, tallying 19 runs across that 3 game set. I also believe we’re getting good value on Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff recorded back-to-back sub-1.00 WHIP seasons in 2020 and 2021 but got off to a slow start this year. He showed major progress in late May(we backed him multiple times) before he got hurt. While this is his first start back off the IL, he threw 5 innings in his last rehab start; workload shouldn’t be a major concern for this F5 play. The Rays really don’t present much of a threat at the plate, specifically against right-handed pitching. I was very underwhelmed with how the Rays handled a slew of vulnerable Pirates righties this weekend, and on the year, they rank just 23rd in OPS vs righties at Tropicana Field. Woodruff’s main struggle this year has been allowing the long ball, but thankfully the Rays rank in the bottom third of the league in both HR’s and slugging% this season. I like the value we’re getting on the Brew Crew early in this game.
