A 1-1 Tuesday brings me to 2-1, +0.9u on the week. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to add to that. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Braves TT OVER 4.5(-110) vs Phillies–6:05 PM CT
After being one of the biggest surprises of the 2021 season, Phillies SP Ranger Suarez has regressed back down to what he truly is: a back-end, below average major league starter. In 14 starts this season, Suarez holds an ugly 1.48 WHIP; not only is Suarez allowing over a hit per inning, but he has also developed an issue with walks. Suarez is walking 4.8 batters per 9 innings in his home ballpark this season and sees his WHIP jump up to 1.73 at Citizens Bank Park. This bodes horribly facing an Atlanta lineup that has mashed left-handed pitching all year. On the road this season, the Braves rank 3rd vs lefties in both OPS(.829) and wRC+(129). Suarez allowed 5 runs in 4.1 innings in Atlanta earlier and allowed 10 baserunners in that start; I’m expecting a similar line tonight. We also have insurance with the Phillies bullpen being one of the worst in the league(23rd in bullpen WHIP). We saw the Phillies give up a run in each of the final 2 innings in last night’s loss; the simple reality is that this bullpen doesn’t have the jimmies and joes to match up with top-of-the-line orders like the Braves. At a standard number and price, I feel comfortable backing the Braves offense tonight in a role they’ve excelled in.
*MLB(1u): Rockies F5 TT OVER 2.5(-105) vs Dodgers–7:40 PM CT
Dodgers SP Julio Urias has rounded into form over his last 4 starts and will almost assuredly be an All Star, but he is entering an environment that he has struggled in throughout his career. Urias allowed 4 runs apiece in 2 of his 3 starts at Coors Field last season, and in his lone start at Coors this season, he allowed 6 runs and 8 baserunners in just 2 innings pitched. The Rockies are hitting lefties as good as they ever have, particularly in their home ballpark. Colorado ranks 2nd in OPS vs lefties at home(.891) and just put up 6 runs on lefty Clayton Kershaw last night. While playing against sub-3.00 ERA pitchers is not a great universal strategy, Coors Field offers a unique, outlier environment. With the Rockies welcoming a well-known lefty masher in Kris Bryant back into their lineup, I feel comfortable about how Colorado matches up with Urias in their home ballpark. I’ll isolate the F5 due to the Dodgers’ bullpen being a top 5 unit in the league, but I do think the full game TT hits as well.
