We had a disappointing 0-2 Wednesday where we once again lost by the hook on the Braves TT. I’m rolling with 2 plays for tonight looking to bounce back and carry some momentum into the weekend. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Astros ML(+110) vs Yankees–5:10 PM CT
After a doozy of a series in Yankee Stadium last weekend, we’re in for another treat this weekend. While the Yanks found a way to split that 4 game set last weekend, they were outplayed and overmatched in each of the 4 games, going 16 innings without a hit at one point. While the offense managed to put up some runs in this week’s series vs the Athletics, they failed to eclipse the 8 hit mark in any of those 3 games. I still wouldn’t say this offense is in very good current form. Astros SP Luis Garcia has been extremely reliable for the Astros this season(1.07 WHIP); while his home ERA sits at 5.18, his WHIP at 1.09 is an indicator he’s run into some tough luck at his home ballpark. Garcia held a 2.39 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at Minute Maid last season, and I think he’s capable of holding down this Yanks lineup tonight.
Yankees SP Luis Severino pitched well against the Astros last weekend, but he enters this game at a heavy disadvantage; pitchers having to face the same lineup for the second straight time is one of the hardest spots in baseball. We saw the Astros take advantage in this same spot earlier this week, crushing Mets SP Carlos Carrasco for 6 runs in just 4 innings. After a slow start, the Astros have really started to get the bats hot at Minute Maid, entering tonight with a league-leading 150 wRC+ in their home ballpark this month. One note: Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña collided late in yesterday’s game and both had to leave the game. I would say Alvarez took the worst of that exchange, but from my eyes, Peña should be able to play today. I’m comfortable playing on the Astros even without those two guys, although I’d like at least one of them in the lineup.
I give the Astros the slight edge in the bullpen. They needed Ryan Pressly in the 9th inning yesterday but are overall much fresher than the Yanks’ pen. Yankees closer Clay Holmes will almost certainly be unavailable after throwing 38 pitches over the past two days. I’ll take my chances with the Astros in the later innings as the Yankees have to stretch roles in the back-end of their ‘pen with Aroldis Chapman still out.
*MLB(1u): Mariners -1.5(-105) vs Athletics–9:10 PM CT
The Athletics will be overmatched facing off against Mariners SP Logan Gilbert tonight. Gilbert has had an impressive sophomore campaign for Seattle, carrying a 2.44 ERA and 1.09 WHIP into tonight’s start. He holds a sub-1.00 WHIP in his home ballpark and has recorded 5 scoreless outings on the season. The A’s rank 29th in wRC+ vs righties this season and (as you might expect) have had no success stepping up in competition.
The Mariners offense was in a bit of a rut entering last night’s game, but they erupted for 11 hits and 9 runs in a blowout win. They’ll get an easy matchup today facing rookie SP Adrian Martinez. With this being Martinez’s 2nd big league start, we need to dip into his minor league numbers. Last year in AAA, Martinez recorded an ugly 5.28 ERA and 1.52 WHIP; this year in Triple A, it was much more of the same(5.63 ERA, 1.41 WHIP). By my estimation, Martinez is in the big leagues out of necessity, not because he deserves to be.
The Mariners also hold a MAJOR edge in the later innings. Seattle’s bullpen ranks 3rd in bullpen WHIP, while the Athletics’ bullpen ranks 28th in that same category.
