I am +2.05u to start the month and +15.31u across the last 25 days! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Red Sox -1.5(+105) @ Athletics–8:40 PM CT
Red Sox SP Nathan Eovaldi takes the hill today in an absolute dream matchup. The A’s offense ranks dead last in OPS vs right-handed pitching this season and hasn’t fared much better in their home ballpark. Eovaldi’s numbers are inflated this year due to a blow-up start a few weeks ago against the Astros, but he’s gone deep each of his past 2 starts(complete game in his last outing) and holds a sub-3.00 ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP on the road this year. I expect dominance from him in this one. Athletics SP James Kaprielian seems to be enduring a sophomore slump after a solid rookie campaign in 2021. He’s striking out nearly 2.5 batters less per 9 innings than he did a year ago and allowing nearly 2 HR/9. While I expect him to show improvement throughout the year, this is a tough matchup facing off against a Boston offense that has really found their way over the past few weeks. I know the Red Sox offense was a little shaky in their recent home stand, but they capped it off with a 7 run Wednesday. The Red Sox bullpen also holds a pretty stark bullpen advantage and is coming off a day of rest, but I’m expecting Eovaldi to go pretty deep in this game regardless. I feel comfortable laying the run-and-a-half with the Red Sox given the Athletics’ offensive woes and the major pitching advantage in this game.
*MLB(0.63u): Rockies F5 ML(+160) vs Braves–7:40 PM CT
Braves SP Max Fried has looked like an All Star through 10 starts this year, but this is anything but a normal matchup. Coors Field is a nightmare for pitchers who aren’t used to its conditions, and the Rockies hold an .887 OPS(2nd in MLB) vs left-handed pitching in their home ballpark. I REALLY think Fried is going to lay a clunker in this one. While the Braves took advantage of some poor left-handed pitching from Colorado yesterday, this is one of the most inconsistent offenses in the league. They hold just a .640 OPS(24th in MLB) against right-handed pitching on the road this year and will face an arm in Chad Kuhl who seems to have adjusted nicely to pitching in Coors Field; Kuhl holds a very good 1.04 WHIP at home this year and is coming off 2 solid starts. I think you have to treat the Rockies like a top-of-the-line team when they’re at home, and this line does anything but that. At this price, I am absolutely interested in playing on the Rockies early in this game. I would caution playing the Rockies over the full game given they have arguably the worst bullpen in baseball.
*Angels/Phillies Note
I want to be on the Phillies today given the Angels poor current form and horrible scheduling spot given they played a double-header in NY yesterday. I also want to fade the inexperienced Angels SP Chase Silseth early in this game. I am debating Phillies F5 ML or Phillies F5 TT, but the game is currently off the board due to the Phillies failing to announce their starter yet. Once that is announced, I will decide which route to go and send out the play on my Twitter and Telegram.
