A 2-0-1, +2.05u brings me to +17.36u over the last 26 days! I’m rolling with a pair of MLB plays today looking to add to that tally. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Marlins ML(-110) vs Giants–3:10 PM CT
Marlins SP Pablo Lopez has looked phenomenal through 10 starts(1.83 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) and will take the hill in his home ballpark today, a role he’s excelled in throughout his career. The Giants might have pushed across 15 runs last night, but they were shutout by Sandy Alcantara in this ballpark on Thursday night and are still without a few key lefty bats in Brandon Belt and LaMonte Wade. The projected starters for SFG also have poor career numbers vs Lopez. Giants SP Logan Webb had a phenomenal 2021 season and has followed it up with a solid start to 2022, but he is not the same pitcher away from home; he yielded over 2 runs more per 9 innings on the road last season. Webb is also striking out over than 2 batters less per 9 innings than he did a season ago and will face a Marlins lineup that has surprisingly seen righties well in their home ballpark this season(.782 OPS, good for 3rd in MLB). The bullpen matchup is fairly even, although the Marlins ‘pen has been far more effective at home this season. I think we’re getting a matchup edge with Lopez on the hill here, and the Marlins have sneakily become an offense you can trust in their home ballpark. I also don’t mind playing against the Giants right now considering some of their injury woes.
*MLB(1u): Braves/Rockies OVER 11.5(-105)–8:10 PM CT
Even in his 6th season as a Rockies, SP Kyle Freeland has yet to adjust to pitching in Coors Field. A 4.96 ERA and 1.56 WHIP doesn’t inspire much confidence, but a career WHIP above 1.4 suggests this is just the level of pitcher Freeland is. The Braves are very inconsistent against righties, but they rank 3rd in the league in OPS vs left-handed pitching. On Thursday, the Braves tagged a tandem of Rockies lefties(Austin Gomber, Ty Blach) for 13 runs in just 8 innings, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see something similar today. The Rockies bullpen also holds a 1.50 WHIP(second worst in baseball) and is a unit I have no problem going against. Braves SP Spencer Strider looked fantastic for the Braves out of the bullpen this year, but I have my doubts as to how he will settle in as a starter. He yielded 5 runs in 4.1 IP in his first start of the year against the Diamondbacks and will certainly not offer much longevity as he still adjusts to his new role. While I like the back end of the Braves bullpen, I believe their middle relief arms(which will likely be needed in bulk today) are vulnerable against the best home offense in the league. With the conditions in mind, I think this high of a total tells you a pretty good story as to how the oddsmakers see this game shaping out. I think each offense could erupt in this one; rather than try to pick a side, I’ll simply play this over the total.
