After another profitable weekend, I am now +17.31u over the past 28 days. I’m rolling with a pair of plays to kick off the new week. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Astros F5 -0.5(-105) vs Mariners–7:10 PM CT
In 23.2 innings pitching at Minute Maid Park this season, Astros SP Cristian Javier has yielded just 1(!) run and is striking out nearly 11.5 batters per 9 innings on the year. The Mariners offense is very mediocre across the board and is not a unit I want to trust when stepping up in competition. Mariners SP Robbie Ray might’ve won the AL Cy Young last season, but his FIP was nearly a full run higher than his ERA in 2021 due to the fact he held an astounding 90% of runners on base. Failing to find that same luck, Ray’s ERA has climbed near 5.00 this year with his WHIP settling in at 1.25. While Ray is still missing bats, he’s also allowing 1.5 HR/9 and walking 4.6 per 9 innings on the road this year. The Astros have yet to really get their offense rolling, but they have seen lefties better in their home ballpark over the first two months of this season. I expect Javier to continue his dominance at Minute Maid Park and for the Astros to find a way to take a lead into the later innings.
*MLB(1u): Angels F5 TT OVER 2.5(+105) vs Red Sox–8:38 PM CT
The Angels’ 11 game losing streak is one of the biggest stories in baseball right now. While this team is enduring a rough stretch, they were able to put up 7 runs in Philadelphia yesterday. In any case, Red Sox SP Michael Wacha is a guy I want to fade into oblivion. Wacha held an ERA north of 5.00 each of the past 2 seasons but now holds a 2.43 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through 8 starts this season. With that said, Wacha has always had atrocious road numbers, and a FIP at 4.12 is much more reflective of the type of pitcher he is. He’s striking out less than 6 batters per 9 innings, a recipe I don’t think will lead to good results in the long term for an arm that doesn’t have great stuff to begin with. Even with their recent skid in mind, the Angels still hold the 2nd highest team OPS vs right-handed pitching in their home ballpark this season and will be greeted back by an 8 mph wind blowing out to CF tonight. The Angels might be struggling at the moment, but facing Wacha is a great opportunity for them to get back on track. I’ll isolate the F5 TT in this one.
