I endured an 0-2 night to start the week, but I still remain +15.26u over the last 29 days. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to bounce back strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Tigers/Pirates UNDER 7(+100)–6:05 PM CT
Pirates SP Jose Quintana is enjoying a renaissance season at age 33, coming into tonight’s start with a 2.32 ERA. While he’ll almost certainly see that ERA climb towards the 4.00 range by season’s end, this is a very manageable matchup facing off with a Tigers offense that has scored the least amount of runs in the league. Considering the Tigers have belted just 30 home runs this season(last in MLB) and rank 27th in OPS vs left-handed pitching, Quintana should be able to keep the line moving tonight. With that said, Tigers SP Tarik Skubal has been nothing short of brilliant this year in his own right. Not only does the lefty hold a 2.15 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP, but a FIP at 2.01 suggests this hot start is sustainable. Skubal has allowed just 0.31 HR/9 this year and will match up against a Pirates offense that is clearly a bottom 5 offense in the league. The Tigers bullpen ranks 2nd in bullpen WHIP, and with a 2 month sample, I think you have to treat them as a top-of-the-line unit. While the Pirates bullpen is a little more shaky, Quintana should offer some longevity in this matchup, and I don’t mind trusting the back-end of Pittsburgh’s ‘pen against this abysmal Detroit offense. I like the full game Under here.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals/Rays F5 OVER 4(-110)–6:10 PM CT
Rays SP Jeffrey Springs has great overall numbers this year, but he has become much more hittable since becoming a full-time starter in the beginning of May. He’s striking out 3 batters less per 9 innings than he did in 2021 as a reliever and sees his FIP 1.5 points higher than his ERA, a signal that regression is in his future. This is a very tough matchup facing off against a Cardinals offense that ranks 3rd in OPS vs left-handed pitching and enters this game in solid current form. On the other side, however, I am licking my chops at the chance to fade Cardinals SP Dakota Hudson. Hudson might hold a 2.96 ERA, but a WHIP at 1.32 shows there is quite a bit to unfold. Hudson has left 81% of runners on base this year which keeps his ERA low, but he’s striking out less than 5 batters per 9 innings and walking over 4 per 9 innings. When you add in that Hudson’s luck has historically run out when he’s not in Busch Stadium, I see tonight as a great chance for the Rays to get after Hudson early in this game. The Rays bullpen coming off a day of rest keeps me off this full game Under, but I like each of these offense’s chances against the respective SP’s.
*MLB(1u): Braves -1.5(-120) vs Athletics–6:20 PM CT
Braves SP Kyle Wright has seemed to put it all together in his age 26 season; he comes into tonight’s start with a 2.41 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 10 K/9, and 0.45 HR/9. The A’s offense ranks dead last in OPS vs right-handed pitching this year, and I expect that to continue given they simply don’t have the jimmy’s and joe’s on that roster. Wright is a power arm who should be able to completely overmatch this offense tonight. The Braves bullpen also comes off a day of rest and has been an effective unit this year(7th in Bullpen WHIP). Athletics SP Cole Irvin is another guy whose sub-3.00 ERA is a bit deceiving due to holding a WHIP above 1.2. Irvin’s soft-handed nature can play nicely against certain lineups, but the Braves rank 4th in OPS vs left-handed pitching this year and have averaged over 7 runs/game over this current win streak. While I believe the A’s bullpen is slightly better than their numbers might indicate, it’s still a bottom 10 bullpen in the game. These are two teams heading in opposite directions; while I usually don’t like laying a ton of juice on run lines, the price is somewhat irrelevant for me in this matchup. Braves keep it rolling tonight.
