I have not enjoyed the start to the week I was looking for, but I still remain +11.96u over the last 30 days. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to get back on track. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Red Sox TT OVER 4.5(-120) @ Angels–8:38 PM CT
Angels SP Reid Detmers became popular after throwing a no-hitter earlier this season, but I think that one-off performance greatly clouds what has been an otherwise poor start to his major league career. Detmers is striking out just 6.2 batters per 9 innings and also allowing 1.4 HR/9, which leads to a FIP(expected ERA) near 5.00. The Red Sox started off the season slow, but since May 1st, this has been the best offense in the league against left-handed pitching by a fairly wide margin. The Sox racked up 15 hits in last night’s game and will be aided by another comfortable wind blowing out towards RCF tonight. The Angels bullpen enjoyed a strong start to the season but have really regressed over the past 2 weeks; they deserve a sizable share of the blame for the Angels’ current 12 game losing streak. The Red Sox have shown enough consistency(and excellence) at the plate over the past month for me to trust them against a very vulnerable Angels staff. 4.5 is a standard TT, and -120 is a very fair price.
*MLB(1u): Giants TT OVER 4.5(-135) vs Rockies–8:45 PM CT
The Giants are not in great current form at the moment, in large part due to the fact that they are still without Brandon Belt and LaMonte Wade. With all of that said, I think their offense will absolutely erupt in this game. Why is that? Rockies SP Antonio Senzatela very well may be the worst pitcher in the league and has continually struggled against this lineup. Senzatela holds an ugly 1.97 WHIP on the season and is allowing over 15 hits per 9 innings on the season. Earlier this season, he allowed 5 runs in 3.2 IP against this Giants lineup in San Francisco and has traditionally been worse on the road throughout his career. Even amidst this pedestrian stretch, the Giants put up 8 runs on Friday against a similar type of arm in Marlins SP Elieser Hernandez. The Rockies bullpen(29th in bullpen WHIP) should be no help tonight, especially considering they have fared much worse on the road as a unit. As a bonus, the wind will be blowing out 17 mph towards the bay in RF tonight; these conditions made the Giants one of the best offenses in the league last year vs right-handed pitching. There’s obviously some juice on this play, but this matchup more than warrants it. There’s no reason this number should be at 4.5.
*MLB(0.71u): Guardians -1.5(+140) vs Rangers–6:10 PM CT
I had concerns earlier this year about Guardians SP Shane Bieber after seeing his velocity and strikeout numbers down. However, he has returned to his peak form over his last 4 starts, going at least 6 innings and allowing no more than 2 runs in each start. He also holds a pair of 10+ strikeout games in that stretch. Tonight, he’ll face a Rangers lineup that ranks just 26th in OPS vs right-handed pitching and holds very pedestrian numbers in the month of June. With the wind blowing in as a bonus, I think Bieber deals another gem in this one. I like Rangers SP Dane Dunning when he’s at home, but his road numbers are too hard to ignore. Dunning held a 6.39 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the road last season and holds that same 1.68 WHIP through 5 road starts this season. While the Guardians are a very mediocre offense, lesser offenses have crushed Dunning in this role over the last 2 years. There is also a major bullpen discrepancy in this matchup; the Guardians rank 1st in the league in bullpen WHIP, while I consider the Rangers ‘pen a CLEAR bottom 5-10 unit in the league. My concerns about the Guardians offense keeps this a smaller play, but +140 was way too good to pass up considering how many key matchups I value point in Cleveland’s direction tonight.
