Mountain West: Going to see some big changes in this conference this year. I think if we dig deep, we can find some value in the wagering markets. Both Boise State and Fresno State lost their quarterback last year as well as their skill positions so we can’t bet on them. Boise also has some terrible Odds at -110 to win the conference. Utah State was amazing last year but this team returns only their quarterback Jordan Love and a left tackle on their entire offense. Utah State also have Gary Anderson back at coach after all these years after losing Matt Wells. I am not a fan of Anderson and really did not like seeing what he did for Wisconsin and Oregon State. San Diego State and Hawaii are the most intriguing to me because they are in the easier west division returning the most production. Fresno State is very down returning only 36% production ranking only 129th out of 130 teams. Now Hawaii started out great last year but we quickly learned mid-season that Navy and Colorado State were not good teams and Rainbow Warriors faltered to 5-8-1 ATS finishing the season in the negative in yards per play. On the other hand, San Diego State was a net positive .4 yards per play and checks the boxes of:
- Good returning Production at 67%
- Consistency at coach Rocky Long and QB Ryan Agnew
- Great schedule avoiding Boise State and AirForce while getting Utah State, Wyoming, Nevada and Fresno State all at home.
- In 2018 they didn’t return much production so these kids were mainly new to the program.
- I don’t love how they finished their season last year but they had an excuse losing to Fresno State taking them out of the MWC Championship.
I could take the +475 for the Aztecs to win the MWC or just play +160 to win the West division. I did the break even analysis for the hedge on the extra game and decided that the -121 break-even price is too low against likely Boise State in the championship game. Here is the calculation. We get paid a total of $100 of our money at risk plus the $160 that we win with just the west divisional bet and our $100 plus the $475 that we win for the conference. $575 – $260x = 0. X= a factor of 2.21. (2.21-1)*-100 = -121 or decimal odds of 1.83 [(100/121) + 1]. You would have to lay $315 on Boise to get paid the $260 you would have gotten paid on the divisional ticket for the hedge (so either way you get your $260). According to most power ratings, Boise State will be favored by much more than -121 break even line so lets just take the +160 play to win the West. I also like their season win total over 8 because they have 2 very winnable non conference games against Weber State and New Mexico State.
San Diego State +160 to win the MWC West division and over 8 wins – both 1 star
