Yesterday’s Reflection: What We Learned
After a rocky start to March we’re gaining some steam, going 10-3 in our last 13 (including in-game plays on Twitter) for a profit of over 20units. After a 4-2 day yesterday where we profited over 8units, we’re looking for more tonight!
- Chicago beat the Coyotes 7-1 last night. I
suppose the ‘Hawks realized that Arizona wouldn’t get them to hit that OVER
mark, so they did it themselves.
- On that note, I’ve been interested in Arizona this year because I’ve felt that they’re not nearly as good as their record indicates. Look for opportunities where they’re overvalued.
- Toronto continues to under impress, losing 6-2 at home to Tampa. Yes, the Lightning are great, but others have shown to be able to get under their skin, especially at home. To be a contender, you have to beat Tampa Bay. The Leafs never looked like they were in that game.
Today’s Slate
Dallas Stars @ Buffalo Sabres – Yes, Buffalo is an over team. They have a 37-28-3 record this season in O/U. But the real shocker is on the visitors. Dallas is 7-22-5 to the UNDER this year on the road. That means they win the under just shy of 65% of the time. To put that in perspective, it’s nearly the exact same percentage that the ‘Hawks have hit the over this year. Bishop is in goal for the Stars tonight, and he’s only given up one goal in his last three starts combined. Meanwhile, for the Sabres, Carter Hutton is expected to start, and he has a nearly one goal per game better GAA at home than on the road. We have to take the UNDER here.
Buffalo/Dallas UNDER 5.5 (-125) 3units
Boston Bruins @ Columbus Blue Jackets – If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or in our case, if it keeps hitting, don’t stop flooding it. I may well be on the “Fade Columbus” train for the rest of the year. But the numbers back the theory. Tonight, the Bruins come into Columbus, and while the Bruins haven’t been the best road team (four wins above .500), Columbus has the third-worst home record in the Eastern Conference, behind only Detroit and Ottawa. Ouch. Remember a play last night with a team that was four games plus .500 on the road? The Jackets lost last night in New York (good for us) and while the score seemed close, the game was not. One of the more interesting aspects of this game is that, during this season, when Columbus has lost the night before and play again the following night they have lost three in a row of that back leg and are 1-4 on the season. Korpisalo is starting for Columbus, and there are some interesting facts behind his numbers. He has lost his last five games, posts his worst SV and GAA against the Atlantic Division as any division, and posts worse stats at home than on the road (we’ve exploited this before). And the B’s, well, they fell to Pittsburgh in a battle on Sunday to end a six game winning streak. This is the first meeting between these teams this year, and they’re set to meet three times in the final 15 games. Boston has been red hot, and on two days rest against a tired and weakened Blue Jackets team, let’s take the traditional trifecta tonight, with a slight modification in unit allotment.
Boston -1.5 (+245) 2units
Boston 3-Way ML (+145) 3units
Boston ML (-105) 3units
New Jersey Devils @ Calgary Flames – In a battle of (one of the) worst versus (one of the) best, where the best gets to play at home, it makes sense to see a near 400 ML on the Flames as favorites. We usually stay far away from games where the -1.5 sits with juice, but the O/U looks good here. The Devils are an UNDER team, and while Calgary was an over team for a while, they have gone under in two of the last three and are 6-2-1 to the under in their last nine. Meanwhile, New Jersey is 5-1-1 in their seven to the under. Meanwhile, when the total is at exactly six, New Jersey is 6-2-1 to the under in the last nine (same as above with the Flames) and Calgary is 3-1-1 to the under in their last five. MacKenzie Blackwood is expected to Start for the Devils, and the 22-year old has posted very respectable numbers in his limited starts this year, with a .932 SV and 2.23 GAA. Let’s take the UNDER here.
Calgary/New Jersey UNDER 6 (+107) 3units
That’s all I got for now. I feel confident tonight, and there should be some interesting in-game situations so make sure you follow on twitter (@jksportsbets), as I often release in-game plays that have shown to be very profitable. Let’s get at it!
