Yesterday’s Reflection: What We Learned
Tuesday was not great. We put a lot of eggs in one basket – and that basket fell over. In the future, we’ll likely be trying to spread it out a bit more.
Last night we released one in-game play that, in all honesty, should have hit. But it didn’t. Such is life!
- Chicago continues to hit the OVER. But, I’m telling you, the team is playing differently. The D is playing differently. Don’t be surprised if they regress back towards a 50/50 in the O/U for the rest of the year.
- New Jersey beat up on Edmonton a night after being beat up on by Calgary in the third. Unfortunately, we were on the wrong end of that one. The Devils are one of the more interesting “bad teams” in the league at the moment.
Today’s Slate
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Buffalo Sabres – The Pens go to frosty upstate New York to battle the Sabres tonight. This matchup is 3-1-1 to the OVER in the last five meetings between the two. Casey DeSmith is expected to start for Pittsburgh, and he has given up 19 goals in his last four starts. Prior to these previous two games, Buffalo had hit seven goals or more in seven straight games. This should be action packed in Buffalo. Take the OVER.
Buffalo/Pittsburgh OVER 6.5 (+105) 2units
St. Louis Blues @ Ottawa Senators – St. Louis is one of the best road teams in the league. I mentioned in a previous newsletter that we should be on the lookout for spots they’re undervalued because they’re on the road. It may not seem like it, but this one of those spots. Playing a very weak Sens team, St. Louis can feel the pressure of the Stars two points back. The Blues post an 19-11-5 road record, compared to the Sens, who are just 14-16-4 at home. Ottawa is only 5-7-1 against the Central, and the Blues are an amazing 9-3 against one of the most competitive divisions in the league. Nilsson has not been exceptional for Ottawa, to say the least, and he draws the start here. Just like a pick below, the ML is too juiced so get the other two instead. 165 is a little more than I like to lay with a road team, but this spot is too good.
St. Louis -1.5 (+103)
2units
St. Louis 3-Way ML (-165) 3units
Anaheim Ducks @ Arizona Coyotes – Arizona returns home after going 1-1 on their brief road trip. They return to Gila River Arena where, before the trip, they went 6-1 on their longest homestand of the season. Their only loss? To the Ducks. They’re looking for revenge and badly need to continue their winning ways. Anaheim is 2-9 in their last 11 on the road, and look pretty pitiful, especially during their home loss to the Kings the other night. Arizona plays a lot of one goal games, so beware of the spread and the three-way, but pound the ML.
Arizona ML (-140) 3units
Florida Panthers @ San Jose Sharks – The Panthers go into San Jose to face the second-best home team in the league. The Sharks have won six in a row, and Florida has lost their last four road games. Rookie Sam Monetmbeault is expected to start for the Panthers. He has been great in his last two starts after allowing four goals in his first career NHL start. But all three games were at home. This is his first career road start, and boy did he get a tough draw. SAP Center is an incredibly difficult place for a visiting team to play. Florida has lost all five road games against the Pacific division this year, including bad losses in Arizona, Edmonton, and a terrible 5-1 loss at Rogers Arena against the Canucks. Don’t expect anything different. Just like the Blues, the ML is too juiced, so look three-way and spread.
San Jose -1.5 (+130)
2units
San Jose 3-Way ML (-140) 3units
Bonus Pick: Take Tampa Bay and Nashville ML parlay for 1unit at -107.
The in-game plays are starting to show profitability, so get at it on twitter (@jksportsbets). Looking forward to the slate tonight!
