What a whirlwind of a College Basketball Season. Seems like only yesterday we were breaking down coaching changes and how those would affect some teams. Now here we are on the eve of the greatest three weeks in sports.
The conference tournaments yielded more bid stealers than usual taking some spots from more well deserving teams. I only had a few gripes in the process. The biggest by far was Virginia getting in from a weak ACC. The second was that I thought the Mountain West got hosed in the seeding process. Boise State, and Colorado State deserved better than a play in game, and Utah State should have been higher than an 8 seed. Those teams beat up on each other all year and I think were overlooked by the committee. Guess we will find out in the next few days if my assessment is correct.
Below is a quick overview of games in the East/Midwest Regions and a couple of the plays I am on to start the tourney.
East Regional (Boston)
- No. 1 Connecticut (31-3) vs. No. 16 Stetson (22-12)
- Location: Brooklyn, N.Y.
- Date/Time: Friday, March 22 at 2:45 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Spread: UConn -26.5/145.5
- No. 8 Florida Atlantic (25-8) vs. No. 9 Northwestern (21-11)
- Location: Brooklyn, N.Y.
- Date/Time: Friday, March 22 at 12:15 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Spread: Florida Atlantic -2.5/142.5
- No. 5 San Diego State (24-10) vs. No. 12 UAB (23-11)
- Location: Spokane, Wash.
- Date/Time: Friday, March 22 at 1:45 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Spread: San Diego State -7/138.5
- No. 4 Auburn (27-7) vs. No. 13 Yale (22-9)
- Location: Spokane, Wash.
- Date/Time: Friday, March 22 at 4:15 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Spread: Auburn -12.5/140.5
- No. 3 Illinois (26-8) vs. No. 14 Morehead State (26-8)
- Location: Omaha, Neb.
- Date/Time: Thursday, March 21 at 3:10 p.m. ET
- TV: truTV
- Spread: Illinois -12/147.5
- No. 6 BYU (23-10) vs. No. 11 Duquesne (24-11)
- Location: Omaha, Neb.
- Date/Time: Thursday, March 21 at 12:40 p.m. ET
- TV: truTV
- Spread: BYU -9.5/142.5
- No. 7 Washington State (24-9) vs. No. 10 Drake (28-6)
- Location: Omaha, Neb.
- Date/Time: Thursday, March 21 at 10:05 p.m. ET
- TV: truTV
- Spread: Drake -1.5/138.5
- No. 2 Iowa State (27-7) vs. No. 15 South Dakota State (22-12)
- Location: Omaha, Neb.
- Date/Time: Thursday, March, 21 at 7:35 p.m. ET
- TV: truTV
- Spread: Iowa State -16.5/135.5
Midwest Region (Detroit)
- No. 1 Purdue (29-4) vs. No. 16 Montana State or No. 16 Grambling State
- Location: Indianapolis, Ind.
- Date/Time: Friday, March 22 at 7:25 p.m. ET
- TV: TBS
- No. 8 Utah State (27-6) vs. No. 9 TCU (21-12)
- Location: Indianapolis, Ind.
- Date/Time: Friday, March 22 at 9:55 p.m. ET
- TV: TBS
- Spread: TCU minus-3.5/150.5
- No. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) vs. No. 12 McNeese (30-3)
- Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
- Date/Time: Thursday, March 21 at 7:25 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Spread: Gonzaga -6.5/149.5
- No. 4 Kansas (22-10) vs. No. 13 Sanford (29-5)
- Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
- Date/Time: Thursday, March 21 at 9:55 p.m. ET
- TV: TBS
- Spread: Kansas -7.5/153
- No. 6 South Carolina (26-7) vs. No. 11 Oregon (23-11)
- Location: Pittsburgh, Pa.
- Date/Time: Thursday, March 21 at 4 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Spread: South Carolina -1.5/132.5
- No. 3 Creighton (23-9) vs. No. 14 Akron (24-10)
- Location: Pittsburgh, Pa.
- Date/Time: Thursday, March 21 at 1:30 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Spread: Creighton -12.5/141.5
- No. 7 Texas (20-12) vs. No. 10 Virginia or No. 10 Colorado State
- Location: Charlotte, N.C.
- Date/Time: Thursday, March 21 at 6:50 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- No. 2 Tennessee (24-8) vs. No. 15 Saint Peter’s (19-13)
- Location: Charlotte, N.C.
- Date/Time: Thursday, March 21 at 9:20 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Spread: Tennessee -21.5/130
Here’s a pair of free picks with some quick analysis, and then lets let the games begin!
8 Utah St. vs 9 TCU
TCU -3.5/150.5
This should be a great match-up late on Friday night. Both teams are battle tested. TCU finished 9-9 in Big 12 play, while Utah St won the Mountain West regular season at 14-4. TCU only lost one game all season to a KENPOM team ranked outside the Top 50 which was their regular season finally against UCF. Emanuel Miller leads the way for a very deep roster of Horned Frogs who like to play fast. Utah State features an elite inside game with big man Great Osobor and with a name like that how couldn’t you be a fantastic player.
Looking at a few metrics that decided which way to go here for me really came down to the offensive efficiencies for Utah State and the pace and attacking offense for TCU. The Aggies are 12th in the country in 2-point FG%, while TCU only defends inside at 207th in the nation. I think the Aggies are going to struggle to slow the TCU attack by limiting turnovers. TCU is Top 25 in turnover % on defense and should get some easy looks in transition. If you look at the two games Utah State played against New Mexico this year you see some similarities that will pop up here. TCU like New Mexico will play high up tempo ball with attacking defense and look to attack inside where New Mexico had success in both games vs Utah State. I think both these teams will score at will inside, and if we get any kind of foul trouble, I believe this turns into a shoot-out.
Over 150.5, 1.5 Units
3 Illinois vs 14 Morehead State
A big time clash of styles will take place on Thursday afternoon between Big Ten Tournament Champ and OVC Regular season co-champ and Tourney champ Morehead State. The Ohio Valley was very underwhelming this year where Morehead went 14-4. Their best win on the season came against Chattanooga in non-conference play back in early December. Illinois had a few bumps in the road during Big ten play finishing 14-6. The Illini didn’t lose a game by double digits all season long.
Morehead State will need to keep Illinois’ #3 ranked offense in check and hope to slow the game down in order to have a chance in this one. The Morehead State guards will also need to find a way to knock down some triples as that is the weak spot in the Illinois defense checking in at 214th overall. If they can’t put up a solid percent from deep they will not be able to keep up with an Illinois offense. Looking at Morehead State’s schedule they ranked 338th nationally in Strength of schedule. They hung with Indiana, but got pummeled by Purdue, Alabama and Penn State all of whom are more on tier with Illinois than the Hoosiers. The money came in early on Morehead State, but Illinois did not beat a team outside the Top 100 in KenPom by less than ten points all season and I don’t see any reason for it to start here.
Illinois -11.5, 1.5 Units
