March Madness is here and I am analyzing every opening round game for the East Bracket. 3 of our other excellent handicappers are handling the other regions. I’ve got the most exciting of the regions for the fact that there is a real good chance of upsets in round one and beyond in this bracket. I’ll share some insights on half of the bracket tonight, and the other half tomorrow evening.
I’m gonna drop some quick tidbits on each game and give out a few FREE PLAYS along the way. All game times are in CDT cause that time change thing just happened here, and I live in Wisconsin. Y’all can figure out what time it actually is where you live.
Here’s the match-ups and locations for the East games
16 Seed Play in Game Texas Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson– 5:40 PM Wednesday in Dayton, OH
Midwest Bracket
1 Purdue vs 16 TSU/FD – 5:50 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
8 Memphis 9 vs FAU– 8:20 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
5 Duke vs 12 Oral Roberts – 6:10 PM Thursday in Orlando, FL
4 Tennessee vs 13 Louisiana – 8:40 PM Thursday in Orlando, FL
6 Kentucky vs 11 Providence – 6:10 PM Friday in Greensboro, NC
3 Kansas State vs 14 Montana State – 8:40 PM Friday in Greensboro, NC
7 USC vs 10 Michigan State – 11:15 AM Friday in Columbus, OH
2 Marquette vs 15 Vermont – 1:45 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
We will take a look at the play-in game and the top half of the bracket tonight, and the bottom half tomorrow night.
16 Seed Play in Game Texas Southern (-2.5) vs Fairleigh Dickinson O/U 145.5
FDU got into the dance by default with Merrimack still making a D1 transition and not eligible for the NCAA Tourney. They are also the lowest efficiency team in the tournament. They have the third worst rated defense in all of D1 rankings 361st. About the only thing they do well when their opponent has the ball is turn them over. The poor FDU defense will match-up with one of the worst offenses in the country in Texas Southern. They got in thanks to a Cinderella run as an 8 Seed in the SWAC Tourney. I lean FDU as even though they have an awful defense, I just can’t bring myself to play a team that shoots 28.7% from distance like Texas Southern in a game like this.
1 Purdue vs 16 TSU/FD
Purdue will face the winner of the play-in cupcakes, and shouldn’t have any problems. The Boilermakers earned their #1 seed by winning the Big Ten regular and Post-season Crowns. They are led by 7’4″ Zach Edey. They pack it in around him on the defensive end and slow the game down to take advantage of his size and passing ability inside on offense. Purdue does have two weak points and I believe one of them will cost them a game in this region. They don’t turnover their opponents as the are 329th in that category on defense. The bigger one is the lack of consistent shooting from 3-point range hitting at just 32.6%. I think they get challenged in the Round of 32 by whoever gets through the 8/9 Match-up.
8 Memphis (-2.5) vs 9 FAU O/U 150.5
The Owls of FAU dominated the Conference USA regular and post-season. They have 7’1″ Center Vladislav Goldin who could hang with Edey should they get by Memphis. The Owls are Top 20 in both offensive and defensive Field Goal Efficiency and will be a tough out for anyone. Memphis’ Deandre Williams will be the key to this game for the Tigers. If he can exploit a potential size match-up against FAU’s guards on the perimiter it could give Memphis an edge. Memphis just knocked off the #1 team in the land, Houston to win the American conference tournament and is playing with a lot of confidence right now. The Tigers struggle to protect the glass giving up quite a few second chances. I think FAU is a really well coached team and I believe if they take care of the ball they can get the win. Just a lean for me however.
5 Duke (-6.5) vs 12 Oral Roberts O/U 146
So the real question for me here is how good is Oral Roberts. They shellacked the Summit League. Two years ago as a 15 Seed they made it to the Sweet Sixteen and were a bucket away from the Elite Eight. They are fun to watch as they play at a fast tempo, but also are the #1 team in the country at taking care of the ball. They shoot 37% from behind the arc and are the #7 team in the country in effective FG%. They also have 7’5″ Connor Vanover inside. Duke is peaking and getting healthy at the right time. The Blue Devils have one and done sensation Kyle Filipowski to contend with inside and at 7 Feet tall he can at least almost stand nose to nose with Vanover. I think Duke will slow this game down and let their defense take over. That being said Oral Roberts could shoot themselves into this one if they are hot from outside. However…. I’m on the Blue Devils -6.5 1.5 Units.
4 Tennessee (-10.5) vs 13 Louisiana O/U 136.5
The Volunteers lost guard Zakai Ziegler to a torn ACL on Feb 28th. They are still trying to piece together their rotation as we head into the tournament and after an 18-3 start they’ve limped to 5-7 in their last 12 contests. Rick Barnes also has an awful history in the tournament both straight up and against the spread. That being said I think the pieces that remain in Knoxville are strong enough on defense to stifle this Louisiana attack. They are the top team in the nation in defending the 3 point shot and 2nd in defensive effective field goal percent. They will also have a definitive size advantage and are #5 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Louisiana is middle of the pack on defense and slightly above average on offense. They certainly were in every conference game in the Sun Belt, but they lost by double digits both times they stepped up in class when playing Texas and Drake. It will take some fast break points and solid shooting for them to sniff 70 in this one. I’ve got it 75-62 so I am on Tennessee -10.5 for 2 Units.
