March Madness is here and I am analyzing every opening round game for the East Bracket. 3 of our other excellent handicappers are handling the other regions. I’ve got the most exciting of the regions for the fact that there is a real good chance of upsets in round one and beyond in this bracket.
I’m gonna drop some quick tidbits on each game and give out a few FREE PLAYS along the way. All game times are in CDT cause that time change thing just happened here, and I live in Wisconsin. Y’all can figure out what time it actually is where you live.
Here’s the match-ups and locations for the East games
16 Seed Play in Game Texas Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson– 5:40 PM Wednesday in Dayton, OH
Midwest Bracket
1 Purdue vs 16 TSU/FD – 5:50 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
8 Memphis 9 vs FAU– 8:20 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
5 Duke vs 12 Oral Roberts – 6:10 PM Thursday in Orlando, FL
4 Tennessee vs 13 Louisiana – 8:40 PM Thursday in Orlando, FL
6 Kentucky vs 11 Providence – 6:10 PM Friday in Greensboro, NC
3 Kansas State vs 14 Montana State – 8:40 PM Friday in Greensboro, NC
7 Michigan State vs 10 USC – 11:15 AM Friday in Columbus, OH
2 Marquette vs 15 Vermont – 1:45 PM Friday in Columbus, OH
Here is the bottom half of the bracket. Let’s Go!
6 Kentucky (-4) vs 11 Providence O/U145
The Wildcats started off the season slow after a first round tournament exit last year as a #2 Seed losing to St. Peter’s. The struggled to the midpoint of the season when they lost to South Carolina. They righted the ship going 11-3 to closeout the SEC slate, before falling in the SEC Tournament to Vanderbilt. The Kentucky offense is explosive, and they can score in bunches. They also give up points in bunches as well. They also struggle from the free throw line which could be their undoing. Providence comes into the tourney ice cold after losing 4 of their last 5 including some very uninspired performances. If they want to hang with Kentucky they better figure things out quickly. Both of the metrics on these teams are very similar so I don’t have a side here. Both are highly efficient on offense although not really fast tempo teams. I lean to the over, but I am 0-7 on games involving Providence and Kentucky this season, so I’m just gonna sit this one out.
3 Kansas State (-8.5) vs 14 Montana State O/U 139.5
The KSU Wildcats as a #3 seed surprised some folks, but I think it is probably well deserved. They went 11-7 in the toughest conference in the nation and had wins against Kansas and Texas. They play fast and can score with anyone, but have also shown they can win grind it out games against the likes of Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Markquis Nowell is the kind of player that can takeover a game, and they’ve got plenty of Senior experience on their side. Their major strength is on the defensive side of the ball where they can stifle opponents for long stretches. Montana State is hot having won 17 of 19. They are a very good half court high ball pressure defensive team. That works in the Big Sky, but both times they have stepped up in class this year against Arizona and Oregon they have lost by 20. Their offense just isn’t going to be good enough to keep up, and they only shoot 32% from distance. The money is coming in on Montana State, but I’m staying away. I lean KSU here -8.5.
7 Michigan State (-2) vs 10 USC O/U 137.5
Sparty is back in the tournament again with a middling seed this season. Coach Izzo tends to get the best from his groups in March, but he needs to get more consistent offense from this group for MSU to have a chance to make a run. They do shoot the 3 Ball at 39.5% good for 4th in the nation so if they have a run of games where those keep dropping it could happen. The problem is they play slow and only shoot 3’s on 33.3% of their shots. Other than the last few minutes against Iowa a few weeks ago the defense is it’s usual solid self. USC has Memphis transfer Boogie Ellis who shoots…a lot. They have lacked consistency as well for most of the season holding a win over UCLA, but also losing to FGCU and Oregon State. USC does gum up the paint very well and is 9th in effective FG% defense so I think they’ll slow this one down a little and try to turn this one into a cage match. I’m on the Under here 137.5 for 1.5 Units.
2 Marquette (-10.5) vs 15 Vermont O/U 144.5
The Marquette crew earns a #2 Seed after winning the Big East regular season and conference Tourney. It is well deserved as Shaka Smart has this team rolling in all facets. They own a pair of victories over UCONN, Creighton, and Xavier. They boast a Top 10 offense that always seems to come up with clutch buckets when needed. Big East player of the year Tyler Kolak can shoot it and dish it with the best in the country. Vermont is no stranger to the tournament, and they always seem to give some poor top seed a run for their money. They shoot the ball well and don’t turn it over ranking 9th in the country giving it up on only 14.2% of their possessions. That’s a recipe to hang with anyone, and I could see it happening here, but unfortunately they won’t have enough scoring in the end to drop this Golden Eagles Squad who I have coming out of the East and going to the Final Four. No plays on this game though as I think it is right on the number.
I’ll be back next week to review the same region for the Sweet Sixteen!
