So I am combining parts 3 and 4 into this post. I somehow forgot that opening day of the tournament is also St Patrick’s Day. I work in the beer industry and sell Guinness so I won’t be doing any write-ups tonight, you can probably figure out why.
March Madness is here and I am analyzing every opening round game for the Midwest Bracket. 3 of our other excellent handicappers are handling the other regions. I’ve got the most exciting of the brackets in the fact that there is a real good chance of upsets in round one and beyond in this bracket. I’ll put a post up every evening from now until Thursday saving the Friday games for last.
I’m gonna drop some quick tidbits on each game and give out a few FREE PLAYS along the way. All game times are in CDT cause that time change thing just happened here in the Midwest and these games are in the Midwest region. Y’all can figure out what time it actually is where you live.
Here’s the match-ups and locations for the Midwest games
16 Seed Play in Game Texas Southern/Texas A&M Corpus Christi– 5:40 PM Tuesday in Dayton, OH
Midwest Bracket
1 Kansas vs 16 TSU – 8:57 PM Thursday in Fort Wort, TX
8 San Diego State 9 vs Creighton – 6:27 PM Thursday in Fort Worth, TX
5 Iowa vs 12 Richmond – 2:10 PM Thursday in Buffalo, NY
4 Providence vs 13 South Dakota State – 11:40 AM Thursday in Buffalo, NY
6 LSU vs 11 Iowa State – 6:20 PM Friday in Milwaukee, WI
3 Wisconsin vs 14 Colgate – 8:50 PM Friday in Milwaukee, WI
7 USC vs 10 Miami (FL) – 2:10 PM Friday in Greenville, SC
2 Auburn vs 15 Jacksonville State – 11:40 AM Friday in Greenville, SC
6 LSU (-4) vs 11 Iowa State O/U 127 – Iowa State started 12-0 including wins over Iowa and Memphis. Then they limped though the Big 12 finishing 8-12 in their last 20 games. They peaked early and have struggled to score against elite defensive units as evidenced by the 72-41 drubbing by Texas Tech in Big 12 Tourney. LSU is big and fast and elite on defense. They finish at the rim, and Iowa State lacks height inside. LSU lost a few SEC games they should have won, but I think they will hold Iowa State in check. I played LSU -3 for 2 Units, but like it at 4 still.
3 Wisconsin (-7.5) vs 14 Colgate O/U 139 – Now onto my Alma Mater and constant cause of anxiety the Wisconsin Badgers. They got a 3 seed on the basis of their tie for first in the Big Ten, but are not elite on either side of the ball. They’re good, but not great. They are one of the luckiest teams in the nation and until the final game of regular season had won 15 straight games decided by two possessions or less. If Johnny Davis struggles they could lose to anyone, but if he’s on they can also beat anyone. Colgate is a long range ace, 2nd in the country in 3Pt%. They were up big on Arkansas before crumbling to the Arkansas pressure in last years tournament. Wisconsin will bring no such pressure. I’m off this game except maybe a happiness hedge. Colgate has already dropped from +8.5 to 7 so I think it’s best to stay away at this point.
7 USC (-1.5) vs 10 Miami (FL) O/U 141- USC is big, long and solid around the rim. They dominated on defense in the punch-less PAC 12, except against the two good teams in conference Arizona and UCLA who they were 0-4 against. They are poor at shooting free throws. Miami is elite on offense and poor on defense. They have a win over Duke, but also weren’t great against the top of the ACC in the second half of conference play. I’ve got this right on the numbers here so this is a no play for me, but I think it’s possible Miami could outscore USC if this game turns into a high scoring affair.
2 Auburn (-15.5) vs 15 Jacksonville State O/U 138.5 – Jacksonville State got in the tourney on a technicality after losing in the ASUN semis. They are a team that does well from the perimeter and plays at a slower pace. They will have to slow this game down to keep it close. Auburn lost to Texas A&M in the SEC Tourney and will be rested and ready to go here. They will have a substantial size advantage and are battle tested coming through the SEC. A month ago this was one of my tourney favorites and I think in the Midwest they could certainly find their way into the Final Four. This game has been steamed up to 15.5 and if it keeps going up I may look at a first half Jacksonville State play, but this is likely a pass for me.
